Source: [https://twitter.com/l_hornung/status/1497250979514925058](https://twitter.com/l_hornung/status/1497250979514925058)
Translated:
Since there is currently a lot of speculation about #SWIFTban and potential effects, here is a small thread. Hint: My knowledge comes from working in the sanctions control department of a major German bank.
First of all: Global payment transactions are processed using SWIFT. These are standardized messages for a large number of financial instruments, including classic transfers.
Excluding Russia from SWIFT would result in all international payments to and from Russia being stopped. In contrast to the sanctions decided so far, this would have comprehensive and worldwide effects.
Even banks in Switzerland or other countries could no longer process transactions with Russia. Since the Russian state budget is financed to 60% from raw material exports, the main source of money would be turned off.
Financing the war would become significantly more difficult. Transactions within Russia would not be affected as a separate national system was built after 2014. Money transactions with China would also be possible, there is also a separate system here.
In summary, this means a widespread catastrophe for Russia for the entire economy and the national budget. This could only be avoided with complicated raw material exchange systems. Now to the effects on Germany.
If financial transactions to Russia are no longer possible, it also means that we can no longer pay for Russian gas. Russia would stop supplies. As far as I know, the gas storage tanks are currently full for 2-3 months.
So enough time to deliver LNG via Rotterdam and the UK gas network – because we don’t have German terminals. Massive price increases would be the consequence, which could only be cushioned by extensive nationalization of the gas market.
Appropriate plans already exist in the BMWK. Furthermore, a #SWIFTban would also have a major impact on German banks, above all Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank. Loans granted to Russian actors could no longer be repaid.
Correspondence banking (processing US dollar transactions for Russian banks) would have to be discontinued. The damage would probably be in the billions. In summary, the question remains whether we Germans are ready to accept massively higher energy and gas prices. I mean: in the face of Russian aggression, this price is small. If we don’t pay it, in a year’s time we will wake up in a security order that will cost us much more.
TL;DR #SWIFTban also harms us, but Russia much more. Stand with Ukraine!