1 / 6With Donald Trump securing a victory over Kamala Harris, experts are weighing in on what his second term might hold—particularly in terms of retribution, foreign alliances, and the business influence shaping his agenda. Former UN Ambassador John Bolton suggests that Trump’s next term could focus on political payback, both domestically and internationally, with significant implications for US-Russia relations and Ukraine’s stability. Meanwhile, Mukesh Aghi, head of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, highlights the role of Trump’s high-profile backers like Elon Musk, whose influence could steer government policy on issues spanning from space to electric vehicles. For the oil industry, Bob Dudley of the Oil & Gas Climate Initiative anticipates a renewed pro-business drive that could benefit American industry broadly. These perspectives underline how Trump’s return to the White House may reshape US policy at home and abroad.
2 / 6Brad Staples, CEO of APCO Worldwide: “I think isolationism will be in part of the core, and protectionism will be at the core of the Trump ideology in this new term. I think beyond immigration and tackling inflation in the way we’ve heard about before, we’ll see a return to some of those things that he prices – tax cuts, extending the 2017 tax cuts to individuals beyond the deadline next year, shift to spending on border security from social security to use of fiscal stimuli to enhance business performance, I don’t think we’ll see a rollback of the CHIPS Act. I think global tariffs will be front and centre, and India as an important trading partner with the United States will face stresses that Europeans and others will face in terms of the imposition of 10-20% global tariffs, probably up to 60% on goods imported from China.”
3 / 6John Bolton, former Trump National Security Advisor: “I think retribution against his enemies is going to be high on the list of things he wants to do. He said it repeatedly during the campaign political enemies, within the Republican Party, within the Democratic Party, and internationally. So that that will be something that that he spends a lot of time on.”
4 / 6Mukesh Aghi, President & CEO of USISPF: “Elon Musk has given over $100 million to the Trump campaign. So I think Elon will have a much stronger influence on the new administration. Will he join the new administration? I doubt it. The reason is that he has his own companies to run, so he can’t divest from those companies, from SpaceX, and Tesla, they’re so dependent on Elon. But he may come in as the advisor to focus, on basically cutting down the bureaucracy. But more important is, is you have to understand his SpaceX’s business is dependent on the US business itself. He already has an $8 billion contract from the US government, and more will come. You look at Starlink as it plays a pivotal role on a global basis. Tesla relies on the growth story of incentives given by the US government to buy EV itself. Yesterday, Tesla stock went up by 13% so what we see is, Elon Musk’s influence on the government will be tremendous as you move forward. And that will have an impact on India also because Elon is very keen to get Starlinks going in India, and he’s still very keen to get Tesla positioned in India. So I think that will have an indirect impact on India also.”
5 / 6John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the United Nations: “I think the Kremlin is delighted that Trump won. I first met Putin in October of 2001 shortly after 9/11 I’ve watched him and his meetings with Trump, and in phone conversations with Trump, I think Putin, former KGB agent that he is, thinks he knows exactly how to handle Trump with with flattery and and the like. And he looks forward to seeing his old friend. And I’m sure Trump looks forward to seeing him, all of which is going to mean, among other things, bad news for Ukraine.”
6 / 6Bob Dudley, Chairman of Oil & Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI): “It seems to be a definitive win, which I’m happy about. I thought it would take two or three days before we actually would know who won, like what happened last time. So this is a definitive victory and a definitive margin in the election, which is a bit of a surprise to me and others. Trump is of course, a very strong supporter of business and industry. And I think he will come in with a sort of renewed sense of energy with people like Elon Musk to American industry and business. Of course, it’s not what you say, it’s what you do. He won’t be behind the desk until January, but I believe he’s pretty clear about the direction he wants to head. What you say during the campaign and what you do after are often different for some politicians, but I think Trump will be committed to business.”