Brexit makes the UK vulnerable to a trade war with Donald Trump

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1. Donald Trump has made many pledges in the run up to the extraordinary comeback that saw him win the race to become the next US president this week.

   But one of the most consequential is likely to be his “America First” plan for trade. The President Elect has said he wants to impose blanket tariffs on all imports to the US ranging from 10-20 per cent – and possibly up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.

   If Trump, who this month described tariffs as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, follows through with this plan it will have a huge impact on the whole world economy.

   But Britain could be particularly exposed. Trump’s radical approach to trade threatens to reveal the true economic vulnerability of the UK now that it has left the EU.

   **Britain’s biggest trading partner**

   The US is the UK’s biggest trading partner and by far and away its biggest market, accounting for more than a fifth (22.1 per cent) of British exports. The total value was £191.5bn last year with everything from Range Rovers to Scotch Whisky being shipped across the Atlantic to America; with oil, generators, pharmaceuticals and aircraft among the goods going the other way.

   Placing 20 per cent tariffs on all imported goods to the US could be catastrophic for all kinds of British companies, particularly those that sell cars, plane parts and other mechanical goods.

   “Increasing tariffs on these would make them more expensive for Americans to buy, which would push them towards buying items made in the US, rather than overseas,” says Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former Australian trade negotiator.

   If this resulted in a loss of business, it could also put British jobs at risk.

   When the UK was part of the EU – the world’s largest trading bloc – a response in kind, or at least the threat of one, in the form retaliatory tariffs on US goods might act as some kind of deterrent, as the EU is a huge market in itself.

   But on its own experts warn that Britain simply does not have that heft and would be unable to hit back in any meaningful way. “If America put additional tariffs on Scotch, hypothetically, the EU would be able to put equivalent tariffs on Bourbon in retaliation,” says a former diplomat. Because Britain’s economy is so much smaller than America’s, Starmer doesn’t have this option, as it could come out the loser in any trade war.

   “The US can afford to get into trade wars because of the size of its internal economy. The UK cannot,” says Sam Lowe, a trade specialist at Flint Global, a leading business consultancy.

   This bleak prospect – with the US on course to expose the UK’s post Brexit isolation – is a marked turn round from the recent past when Brexiteers held up the prospect of a free trade deal with America as one of the biggest potential prizes to be gained from leaving the EU.

2. Sending Labour MPs to America to campaign for Kamala makes the UK vulnerable to a trade war with Trump, too.

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4. On the other hand, UK is so small that it wouldn’t be a war.

   We just do whatever US tells us to do, or we get smashed.

5. This is gross.

6. Donald Trump does seem to have a lot of passion for the UK from when he has spoken about us. I think he wants to help us and understands the special relationship.

   Idiot Obama said that we would be at the back of the line if we voted for Brexit, Biden was part of that whole system.

7. “Big Fucks Small” (Alfie Solomons)

8. Even more reason to go back to the EU

9. Project 2025 talks about the importance of securing a trade deal with us now that we are outside the EU, and to prevent us falling into its orbit again. Hopefully a skilled politician could use this to our advantage.

10. Being excluded out of the EU means we won’t be dragged into a US/EU trade war. Why do people think Trump is coming after the UK?

11. Don’t worry, the previous UK government was busy putting in place trade agreements unfettered by the chains of EU membership. Oh, yeah, about that…

12. As an American, I’m so deeply sorry that the majority of my country has lost all reason and cannot see the truth in front of their faces. We have betrayed all that our country was founded on, and in turn, let the world down. I have never been so shocked and lost in my life at the behavior of my countrymen. Do not depend on the U.S. for anything as it’s clear we cannot even do what’s right for ourselves. I feel as if there are some very dark days ahead of us and I’ve never wished so hard that I am wrong.

13. Ah, but there’s that oven ready trade deal we were promised. We just need to turn the gas on in the oven

    …

    And avoid sticking our head in it, like last time.

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