This could lead to the end of the war (but Russian forces will almost certainly not leave). The Russian invasion so far has been about positioning and not overwhelming force. They can now pretty much flatten any city they want with the amount of firepower they’ve put in place, they’ve simply chosen not to do that so far. The sad reality is that fighting back will only lead to a horrific escalation of violence and thousands of deaths (including large numbers of civilians). It’s a horrible situation but Zelenskyy probably has no real option other than to agree to a truce based mostly on Russia’s terms. No amount of additional firepower from Europe will help. The choices are:
* Fight back and escalate a bloody and awful conflict with huge numbers of casualties, likely losing in the long term (as Russia can’t afford to lose)
* Concede now and keep people alive but lose your country’s free rights to democracy. If the settlement acquiesces to no NATO, no EU and the two regions being let go as independent, but the rest of the country to be maintained as Ukraine, then I can see them possibly accepting those terms.
All sanctions need to stay in place until Ukraines territorial integrity is restored.
That includes Crimea.
We can wait several decades if need be.
I wonder how much Russia wants. Would Ukraine be willing to give up Mariupol and Kharkov? Or everything east of the Dnieper? All access to the Black Sea?
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Finally, people need peace.
This could lead to the end of the war (but Russian forces will almost certainly not leave). The Russian invasion so far has been about positioning and not overwhelming force. They can now pretty much flatten any city they want with the amount of firepower they’ve put in place, they’ve simply chosen not to do that so far. The sad reality is that fighting back will only lead to a horrific escalation of violence and thousands of deaths (including large numbers of civilians). It’s a horrible situation but Zelenskyy probably has no real option other than to agree to a truce based mostly on Russia’s terms. No amount of additional firepower from Europe will help. The choices are:
* Fight back and escalate a bloody and awful conflict with huge numbers of casualties, likely losing in the long term (as Russia can’t afford to lose)
* Concede now and keep people alive but lose your country’s free rights to democracy. If the settlement acquiesces to no NATO, no EU and the two regions being let go as independent, but the rest of the country to be maintained as Ukraine, then I can see them possibly accepting those terms.
All sanctions need to stay in place until Ukraines territorial integrity is restored.
That includes Crimea.
We can wait several decades if need be.
I wonder how much Russia wants. Would Ukraine be willing to give up Mariupol and Kharkov? Or everything east of the Dnieper? All access to the Black Sea?