Donald Trump’s return to the White House has shaped heightened expectations for renewed peace efforts across the tumultuous Middle East. Following his recent election victory, Trump has issued promises to address two entrenched conflicts: the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict brewing across the Lebanese border. Observers are left wondering, though: can Trump truly bring about the lasting peace he pledges?
The situation is dire. Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, 2023, prompted by the attacks launched by Hamas, hostilities have escalated dramatically. Israel’s retaliatory measures have severely impacted civilian life. Reports estimate over 43,300 people, predominantly women and children, have died as Gaza has become almost unrecognizable, heavily bombarded and flattened. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s toll has reached 3,102 dead and more than 13,800 injured, with many Lebanese cities enduring relentless strikes from Israeli forces— all under the ominous specter of prolonged military engagement.
Political analysts based in Lebanon express skepticism over Trump’s potential impact. “We have to differentiate between promises and the reality on the ground,” explains Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut. While Trump’s recognizable foreign policy mantra has aimed at conflict resolution, many question whether his commitments might simply align with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s position, who has steadfastly pledged to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah.
During his presidency, Trump gained notability—albeit controversially—for recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and for endorsing Israel’s authority over the Golan Heights. These actions, though welcomed by right-wing supporters of Israel, have alienated Palestinian leadership, with Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), previously rejecting Trump’s diplomatic overtures as untrustworthy. Abbas, expressing hopes for renewed dialogue, reached out to Trump after recent violence, leading to Trump’s pledge during their recent phone conversation to end the Gaza war.
“During my administration, we had peace, and we will have peace again very soon!” Trump stated with fervor, addressing the Palestinian community via his signed letter. His narrative analogizes with his earlier claims, invoking the historical rates of peace accords during his governance. Yet, how exactly does he envision achieving this? The geopolitical dynamics have significantly shifted since he stepped down.
For Palestinians, Trump’s potential reconciliation may hinge on his and Netanyahu’s mutual agreements: rumors swirl about possible new territorial negotiations, alliances with Saudi Arabia, and plans to lessen Iranian influence across the region. Abbas seeks assurance from Trump for equitable treatment for Arabs and affirmation of their rights, stating his commitment for peace based on international law.
Trump’s letter to the Lebanese community, facilitated by Lebanese-American advocate Albert Abbas, reveals attempts to garner grassroots support. Abbas notes the intensity of the letter and its aspirations for peace as unprecedented—a commitment made upfront to voters, unlike past promises. “This is the first time we see sustenance to political pledges; we hope Trump retains the energy to keep his word,” Abbas declared, framing within it the possibility for reciprocal political support.
The unprecedented letter was born from personal outreach, with the Abbas family insisting on the necessity of involving Trump to address long-standing grievances rooted deeply within the community. Initially turning to Kamala Harris’s electoral campaign for legitimacy on this front, Abbas felt dismissed, prompting his pivot to Trump’s campaign, where he found not only receptiveness but actionable commitment for immediate intervention against the destructive turmoil affecting their familial ties still present back home.
But it isn’t straightforward, as Trump’s intimate relationship with right-wing factions could push him toward policies favoring Israel’s expansionist agenda. Observers caution against assumptions of Trump being primarily pro-Palestinian. Experts fear the political realities influencing Trump might prioritize his personal ties to Netanyahu over the promised interest of Palestinians for statehood.
Beyond the borders of the conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed confidence, expecting Trump to cut arms exports to Israel as part of his peace treaty commitments, striving to change the dynamics between the two conflicting parties. Desperately criticized, Erdoğan’s anticipation indicates not just regional dependence on U.S. policy, but signals broader hopes for decreased tensions on multiple fronts, amid escalations within Syria and Ukraine, both sidelined yet equally volatile.
Erdoğan remarked, “Mr. Trump cutting off arms support to Israel could be effective in halting their aggressive actions.”
Despite these lofty ambitions, the pressing concerns raised by Khashan reflect deep-rooted challenges. Netanyahu seeks to assert dominance with what Lebanon’s former ambassador, Riad Tabbarah describes as potential imposition: surrender or perpetual instability. Perspectives vary on what the future holds for the region under the increasingly unpredictable international pressures likely assembling as the new administration sets forth.
Trump’s return may be the tipping point for existing tensions within Lebanon and Gaza, leading to hopes for peace driven either out of pragmatism or conflict fatigue. Nevertheless, no real peace exists without addressing fundamental grievances and finding equitable solutions for the people who have suffered, often paying the steepest price amid political maneuvering and militaristic posturing on both sides.
For now, Lebanon’s sovereignty and Palestinian aspirations remain shrouded in ambiguity, caught between the powerful players at the global level and aspirations for national integrity at home. Historically dismissed by previous administrations, both communities cannot afford to be mere secondary players on the world stage — their fates tied to political whims — should hope to guide the narrative toward self-determination, equity, and survival.
With Trump back on the political battlefield touting promises of “peace and prosperity,” the world watches closely; will he truly lead to the closure of wounds carved deep within the landscapes of the Middle East? Only time will tell.