Almost half of unionists expect Stormont to collapse before next Assembly election, LucidTalk poll finds

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/almost-half-of-unionists-expect-stormont-to-collapse-before-next-assembly-election-lucidtalk-poll-finds/a744214616.html

Almost twice as many unionists as nationalists believe power-sharing will collapse before the 2027 Assembly election.

Most people (58%) in Northern Ireland think the Stormont institutions will survive for the next two-and-a-half years, but DUP voters are much more pessimistic than Sinn Féin supporters.

Some 69% of nationalists say power-sharing will last until the next election, while 19% reckon it won’t.

However, 52% of unionists believe the institutions will survive until the end of the Assembly mandate, but 36% think they won’t.

Devolution was restored in February after the DUP had collapsed power-sharing for two years over the Irish Sea border. Sinn Féin brought down the institutions in 2017 over the cash-for-ash scandal, and they didn’t return to Stormont until 2020.

Tensions between the two parties increased over the child protection scandals involving Sinn Féin in the past six weeks, but both have pledged their commitment to maintaining the institutions.

Michelle O’Neill and Emma Little-Pengelly have maintained a very strong working relationship which has proven popular with the public.

Sinn Féin voters are the most optimistic about devolution continuing until 2027: 80% believe it will, with just 13% saying it won’t.

Some 57% of DUP supporters think Stormont will keep functioning until then, but 32% reckon it will collapse earlier. Over half of Alliance voters (56%) are confident of the institutions’ survival over the next two-and-a-half years, with 22% predicting they’ll crash.

LucidTalk poll: Michelle O’Neill’s popularity tumbles as child protection scandals take their toll
Rivals will look on with envy as Sinn Féin’s loyal base unshaken despite recent scandals
The UUP debated whether or not to enter the Executive earlier this year, with then leader Doug Beattie personally preferring to go into opposition. However, the party reached a decision to enter government and it secured the health portfolio.

UUP supporters are the most optimistic of all unionists about Stormont — 68% foresee it lasting the course, with just 19% believing it won’t.

The SDLP didn’t secure enough Assembly seats to be entitled to a ministry and MLA Matthew O’Toole is the leader of the Opposition.

A significant section of the party’s voters are pessimistic about the power-sharing administration’s future: 29% believe it will collapse ahead of time, while 48% think it won’t.

The TUV strongly opposes unionists being in government with Sinn Féin, and its supporters are almost three times more likely (63%) to think Stormont will crash before the Assembly election than survive (22%). Just 38% of voters here believe the Executive and Assembly are performing well, with unionists much more disillusioned than others.

Some 48% of nationalists and 46% of Alliance voters view the institutions positively, with just 25% of unionists saying the same — an eight-point drop in the latter group since May.

LucidTalk poll: Michelle O’Neill’s popularity tumbles as child protection scandals take their toll
Rivals will look on with envy as Sinn Féin’s loyal base unshaken despite recent scandals
LucidTalk poll methodology
Polling was carried out online from November 1 to 4, using the established LucidTalk Northern Ireland online opinion panel, which is balanced to be demographically representative.

Some 3,209 full responses were received, and these were authenticated, audited, weighted and modelled into a 1,036 NI-representative data-set used for analysis for the final results.

Weighting was carried out by age, gender, socio-economic group, previous voting patterns, constituency, constitutional position, party support and religious affiliation to produce a robust NI- representative opinion sample.

All results are accurate in terms of being NI representative to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.

LucidTalk is a member of the British Polling Council — the only NI and Ireland-based polling and market research company which is a member.