A draft three-year budget submitted to the Russian Parliament in September outlined plans to further hike military spending by 13% from 2024, which highlights both Moscow’s readiness to continue the war and its tacit acknowledgement of the costs of rebuilding the army, an expert from the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace told The Kyiv Independent. Still, Russia’s economic woes seem likely to only get worse: Toughening up restrictions on migration amid anti-migrant sentiment will make labor shortages worse, and sanctions are making it difficult to secure high-tech machinery. Ending the war, meanwhile, could cause a drop in real incomes for much of the population, fueling unrest, a finance expert argued for the Atlantic Council.
