Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

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1. Anne Applebaum: “Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian targets have increased in frequency in the week since the U.S. election, killing civilians and destroying another dam. Russian troops continued to make incremental gains toward the city of Pokrovsk. The Russian army is preparing a new offensive, this time using North Korean troops. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his election but implied that he would have discussions only if the U.S. initiates talks, drops its sanctions, and refuses to offer any further support for Ukraine—accepting, in other words, a Russian victory. Meanwhile, Russian state television welcomed news of the election by gleefully showing nude photographs of Melania Trump on the country’s most-watched channel. [https://theatln.tc/QbgwKMQU](https://theatln.tc/QbgwKMQU) 

   “How will the new U.S. administration respond? What should the outgoing administration do?

   “In one sense, nothing will change. For nearly three years, many, many people, from the right to the left, in Europe and in America, have called for negotiations to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration repeatedly probed the possibility of negotiations. The German government endlessly proposed negotiations. Now a new team will arrive in Washington, and it will be demanding negotiations too.

   “The new team will immediately run into the same dilemma that everyone else has encountered: ‘Land for peace’ sounds nice, but the president of Russia isn’t fighting for land. Putin is fighting not to conquer Pokrovsk but to destroy Ukraine as a nation. He wants to show his own people that Ukraine’s democratic aspirations are hopeless. He wants to prove that a whole host of international laws and norms, including the United Nations Charter and the Geneva conventions, no longer matter. His goal is not to have peace but to build concentration camps, torture civilians, kidnap 20,000 Ukrainian children, and get away with it—which, so far, he has.

   “Putin also wants to show that America, NATO, and the West are weak and indecisive, regardless of who is president, and that his brutal regime represents some kind of new global standard. And now, of course, he also needs to show his country that nearly three years of fighting had some purpose, given that this costly, bloody, extended war, officially described as nothing more than a ‘special military operation,’ was supposed to end in a matter of days. Maybe Putin could be interested in stopping the fight for some period of time. Maybe he could be threatened into halting his advance, or bribed with an offer of sanctions relief. But any cease-fire treaty that does not put some obstacle—security guarantees, NATO troops in Ukraine, major rearmament—in the way of another invasion will fail sooner or later because it will simply give Russia an opportunity to rest, rearm, and resume pursuit of the same goals later on

   “Putin will truly stop fighting only if he loses the war, loses power, or loses control of his economy. And there is plenty of evidence that he fears all three, despite his troops’ slow movement forward. 

   “… When the next U.S. president, secretary of defense, and secretary of state take office, they will discover that they face the same choices that the current administration did. They can increase Putin’s agony using economic, political, and military tools and make sure he stops fighting. Or they can let him win, quickly or slowly. But a Russian victory will not make Europe safer or the U.S. stronger. Instead, the costs will grow higher: A massive refugee crisis, an arms race, and possibly a new round of nuclear proliferation could follow as European and Asian democracies assess the new level of danger from the autocratic world. An invasion of Taiwan becomes more likely. An invasion of a NATO state becomes thinkable.”

   Read more: [https://theatln.tc/QbgwKMQU](https://theatln.tc/QbgwKMQU) 

2. I don’t disagree that Russia wants to conquer Ukraine, but if a peace deal has a strong security guarantee, i.e., European troops, he might be willing to sign it if only as cheap face saving measure.

3. The European invasion plane and its role in history would argue otherwise but this is Reddit. Opinions are king.

4. Russia is going through a population decline so catastrophic the world is beginning to realize it can’t survive much farther into the century. Ukraine is a major hemorrhage point for Slavs in general leaving the east. Taking Ukraine and limiting how many people can leave is a viable option here for Putin. He’s apparently in luck, because the rest of the world does not want to become Ukraine!

   It’s ugly for the Ukrainians, but if things keep going like they are the world will be in for a much uglier scenario, one where the slavic identity is completely dismembered and destroyed

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