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For Long Islanders, it was always the economy. That was clear to me throughout the pandemic, when Long Islanders expressed their concern during nearly 162 Thursday mornings on News 12 when I answered Long Islanders questions about the economy and their finances. The economic angst expressed by viewers was palpable. This election, and current economic data, clearly illustrates how economically stressed Long Islanders are.

In reaction to the federal reserve’s inflation fighting higher interest rates, the Long Island workforce has softened. The September 2023 workforce of 1.56 million to 1.53 million by September 2024, a decrease of 25,100 persons, including 7,800 who are no longer receiving unemployment benefits. Additionally, another consequence of a softening job market is the changing distribution of jobs in the Long Island economy.

The September 2024 Long Island economy is driven by 1.37 million jobs, of which 1.17 million are private sector jobs and 199,303 are government, public education and public health service jobs. Since September 2023, Long Island gained a net 24,900 nonfarm jobs including 22,300 private sector jobs and 2,600 government jobs. However, the three largest job growth categories between 2023 and 2024 were 11,100 jobs in private education and health services; 9,500 lower-paying leisure and hospitality jobs; and 3,400 natural resources, mining and construction jobs. With 1,500 jobs lost in the higher-paying professional and business services sector, and only 200 new manufacturing jobs, Long Island’s most significant industry sector is service-oriented private education and private health services. While there is slight growth in the job market, the regional economy has not recaptured what was lost in the pre-pandemic economy.

In Suffolk County, the 2019 workforce participation rate was 67.7%, with 54% of the population in the workforce. This compares with the 2023 workforce participation rate of 66.6% with 53.14 of the population in the workforce, a recovery from 2021 where 51% of the population was in the workforce. However, while there was slight growth in the workforce, the wages could not keep up with inflation, which increased to 9.1% in 2022, while 2022 per capita and personal income growth lagged at 2.31% and 1.79%, respectively.  As per capita income and personal income barely increased, the residual impact from the inflation that began in 2021 remained.

Despite inflation decreasing from its June 2022 high of 9.1%, to Long Island’s September 2024 inflation rate of 3.8%, inflation-driven high prices remain. Food prices are 21% above their 2021 levels, gas prices—after increasing 49.6% in 2021 and peaking at $5.02 in June 2022—have fallen 2.2%.

Since June 2023, housing costs increased by 5.1%, electricity by 16.9% and natural gas by 9.4%. Even recreation costs grew by 7.4%. Furthermore, between September 2023 and September 2024, restaurant prices increased by 3.6%, household insurance increased by 10% and auto insurance increased by 6%. Automobile prices have increased by 20% followed by increased auto loan interest costs. The days of subsidized auto loan interest rates are over. And despite the Fed lowering interest rates from a 23-year high of 5.3%, current mortgage rates of 6.79% are slowing home sales.

With remnants of inflation still impacting household budgets, it’s no wonder that national exit polls reported that nearly 66% of voters rated the economy as either poor or not so good. Long Islanders agree.

For us, it remains the economy stupid.

 

Martin Cantor is director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy and former Suffolk County economic development commissioner. He can be reached at [email protected].