Scotland vs Croatia betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Nations League

1.5pts Scotland to win (Draw No Bet) at 29/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Scott McTominay to score anytime at 18/5 (Betway)

0.5pt McTominay to score first at 10/1 (bet365, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, FridayTV channel: Viaplay International YouTube

Scotland ended the last international period with a battling goalless draw at home to Portugal, breaking a run of four straight defeats and boosting their hopes of avoiding an immediate relegation back to the second tier of the Nations League, hopes further enhanced by news that direct rivals Poland will be without Robert Lewandowski for their final two games.

Captain John McGinn is among seven players, meanwhile, to return after missing last month’s matches through injury.

It means for the first time in a while, Scotland head into a fixture with plenty of reasons for optimism.

Avoid defeat against Croatia and – unless Poland win in Lisbon – the Tartan Army will take their survival bid to the final fixture in Warsaw.

For a fleeting moment I’m getting won over by the Nations League format, but just as my enthusiasm builds the fact that this match is only being shown on Viaplay International YouTube brings me back to reality.

While hard to imagine the dour Steve Clarke ever being overjoyed, a clean sheet against Portugal will surely have even caused him to crack a smile.

It was no fluke either.

Scotland allowed chances equating to 4.96 expected goals (xG) across their opening two Nations League fixtures, and although they conceded twice from 1.25 xG in defeat by Croatia in their third game, there were finally signs of defensive improvement.

Prior to their most recent fixture, Clarke’s side had kept only one clean sheet in their previous 15 attempts; a friendly against Gibraltar. It followed a run of five in seven fixtures, solidity that formed the backbone of Scotland’s success under their wily manager.

Portugal were not only kept out, but limited to just one ‘big chance’ (xG > 0.30) and three shots on target.

Having taken the lead away from home against both Croatia and Portugal, and fighting back from 2-0 down only to lose to a 97th-minute penalty in their home game with Poland, SCOTLAND have been close throughout this Nations League campaign and this feels like the right moment to back them TO WIN.

Call me cagey, but I’ll at the prices I’ll also take the added insurance of DRAW NO BET given the importance of avoiding defeat, and the pragmatic way in which Clarke usually approaches things, as well as the inescapable fact that Scotland’s only win in their last 16 games was over Gibraltar.

For a match we expect to be low-scoring, but with little value in associated markets we’re instead taking a FIRST GOALSCORER, with SCOTT MCTOMINAY our man at 10/1.

The former Manchester United midfielder has adapted to life in Italy phenomenally well, adored by the Napoli supporters to such an extent they have quickly given him the nickname ‘McTotally’ to reflect his level of commitment on the pitch, commitment that has already delivered three goals in 10 appearances and helped his new club to the top of the Serie A table.

For his country, since becoming Scotland’s prime goal threat, McTominay has scored 10 times in 19 international games, accounting for 40% of their goals in that time, breaking the deadlock away at Portugal and scoring an equaliser at home Poland in this Nations League campaign.

Given his outstanding record, splitting our stake and also backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a generous 18/5 is also advised.

Scotland welcome back John McGinn, Stuart Armstrong, Scott McKenna, Jack Hendry, Greg Taylor, Lawrence Shankland and Tommy Conway after they missed the last international period, but are without Italian-based pair Che Adams and Lewis Ferguson.

Croatia are without suspended goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and injured duo Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic.

Predicted line-ups

Scotland: Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes.

Croatia: Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic.

Match factsScotland went unbeaten across their first five meetings with Croatia (W2 D3) but have lost their most recent two games against the Croats, including last month in Zagreb (1-2).Croatia have never won away in Scotland (D2 L1), with this their first trip to Hampden Park since October 2013, losing 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier. Scotland are both on their longest ever winless run at home (6 games – D3 L3) and longest run without a victory in competitive fixtures (10 games – D4 L6); they could also now level their longest overall winless run, set in 1998 (9 games – D3 L5 currently).Only Greece (9) have won more games across the last two editions of the UEFA Nations League than Croatia (W7 D3 L2), who only won two of their 10 matches in the competition prior (D1 L7).Bosnia (73), Serbia (72) and Israel (69) are the only League A nations to face more shots in this season’s UEFA Nations League than Scotland (67), though after a 0-0 draw with Portugal last time out the Scots could keep back-to-back clean sheets for the first time since September 2023. Croatia have scored in each of their last 14 away games (29 goals), since blanking in three consecutive such matches between March and September 2021 – their previous longest streak was an 11-game run ending in September 2004. 19-year-old Ben Doak could make his fifth appearance for Scotland with his previous four all coming in the UEFA Nations League; only Paul McStay (6) and Willie Henderson (5) have made as many as five appearances in competitive fixtures as a teenager for the Tartan Army previously. Croatia’s Ivan Perisic has been directly involved in three goals in his last two appearances against Scotland (1 goal, 2 assists), although he hasn’t ever scored in 18 appearances in the UEFA Nations League.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (14/11/24)

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Scotland assistant John Carver was in optimistic mood as he talked to the media in the build-up to Friday’s Nations League game with Croatia.

Here are the key points.

Carver says the return of experienced players like Jack Hendry, John McGinn and Stuart Armstrong is “refreshing” and “encouraging” considering performances have been good without them.Che Adams’ injury is “a blow” considering the striker came into the last camp full of confidence after making a good start with Torino after his summer transfer.Similarly, midfielders Scott McTominay and Billy Gilmour were energised by their “fresh start” with Napoli.Carver loved to see Cristiano Ronaldo, “one of the world’s best footballers… coming off in a huff” after Scotland’s draw with Portugal last time out.He says Scotland “were close to getting something in Croatia as well” in the 2-1 defeat prior to that.Croatia are “a top side” but Scotland will not approach the game with any “fear” as they caused them problems last time.Carver thinks Scotland have shown they are narrowing the gap with the top teams and just need to take the next step and record a win.Although Scotland are bottom of their group, Carver believes two wins in their final two games would give them the chance to finish second if other results go their way.

Scotland have called up midfielder Stuart Armstrong for the Nations League games against Croatia and Poland as attackers Che Adams and Lewis Morgan withdraw from the squad.

Vancouver Whitecaps’ Armstrong, 32, last featured for the Scots as a substitute in their final match at Euro 2024, the 1-0 defeat by Hungary.

Head coach Steve Clarke now has a 24-strong squad for Friday’s home match with Croatia and Monday’s fixture in Poland.

Adams’ withdrawal was no surprise given he missed Torino’s city derby with Juventus at the weekend with a thigh injury.

Scotland assistant John Carver said: “It’s a blow when you lose any player, but in particular a player of his quality.