Ukraine’s European allies eye once-taboo ‘land-for-peace’ negotiations

13 comments

1. Submission Statement: Except for Viktor Orban and his allies, no one in Europe will say this publicly. But there is agreement, privately, that Ukraine’s window to retake all of its land militarily has closed. Due to credibility issues, there will likely need to be creative wordsmithing. Still, the military dynamics are as they are. If there really is a Trump-Putin deal over the heads of Ukraine and Europe, I am not sure there are further options.

2. Yes, this is the way to save face for all sides. Putin can claim his ‘victory’ getting defacto territory that was already in the russian sphere. Ukraine gets out a war of attrition it cannot win, and Europe gets out of having to spend money on their militaries, which they have proven pretty consistently they don’t want to do.

3. Land for peace only works if the one receiving the land only wants that specific piece of land, and nothing else. It’s been tried elsewhere.

   With Russia, I’m not sure what they want, but I suspect they would not stop with just parts of Ukraine. I would not be surprised if they want all of Ukraine, and then further expansion after that.

   And this is really the main issue here. If you give your hand today, will they demand your arm tomorrow?

4. Europe seems pretty confident they can just end this war by giving Russia eastern Ukraine. But will that really happen? Putin won’t want what will become one of the most powerful militaries in Europe with an incredibly hostile population right on the border. Even if EU walked backed NATO promises, they’re still going to fund the shit out of Ukraine in peacetime.

   It seems most likely Putin will try to gauge what advantages the Trump presidency will give him. Russia is struggling but they aren’t under threat of imminent collapse or anything.

5. hi.

   i know this is a bit unrelated by why is Viktor Orban being such a difficult guy to deal with?

   what is the chip on the guy’s shoulder? is it illegal immigrants? is it the gays? what’s up with him?

6. It is, I think, worthwhile to take note of Russia’s initial demands at the start of the negotiations in March 2022, in addition to its main demand for Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state.

   >The Ukrainian army must be reduced to a minimum: 50,000 people, including 1,500 officers (five times smaller than Ukraine’s existing army in 2022).

   >Ukraine must not “develop, produce, invent, or deploy on its territory any missile weapons of any type with a range greater than 250 kilometers.” Russia also reserves the right to ban Ukraine from using “any other types of weapons that may be developed as a result of scientific research” in the future.

   >Ukraine must “recognize the independence” of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics,” including all of the territory within the borders of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions (despite the fact that Russia controlled only part of these territories, as is still the case today).

   >Ukraine must assume the costs of repairing all of the infrastructure in Donbas that had been destroyed since 2014.

   >Ukraine and its partners must lift all sanctions against Russia and withdraw all lawsuits filed against Russia since 2014.

   >Ukraine must make Russian an official state language and restore all of the property rights of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.

   >Ukraine must “repeal of and permanently ban any prohibitions of symbols associated with victory over Nazism”; in other words, it must re-legalize Soviet and communist symbols.

   [https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/04/journalists-obtain-russia-s-initial-proposals-from-march-2022-negotiations-revealing-putin-s-plans-for-post-war-ukraine](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/04/journalists-obtain-russia-s-initial-proposals-from-march-2022-negotiations-revealing-putin-s-plans-for-post-war-ukraine)

   The entire article is worth reading for anyone interested in the early negotiations.

   As is this Foreign Affairs article from April 2024 that also covers the negotiations extensively.

   [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine)

   [https://archive.is/FD5Qt](https://archive.is/FD5Qt)

7. “Ah, we’ve finally achieved peace. And all we had to do was appease our opponent. All they wanted was to unify their own ethnic group anyways, that’s not to bad. They’ll leave the rest of Czechoslovakia I’m sure”.

   Let’s see how this plays out again.

8. Peace? Russia will regroup and come back for more decades later. There is no peace with these mfs.

9. Nothing less than the toppling of Zelenskys government and replacement with a Russian run system will be enough.

10. *European allies are increasingly bracing for negotiations on Russia’s war in Ukraine that could include territorial concessions in return for security guarantees for Kyiv.*

    This is allegorical to bracing for a car accident that one is watching from their penthouse apartment.

    Surrendering Ukraine now is surrendering Europe and NATO tomorrow, while hoping that the next invasion, whether Georgia, Moldova, a third Ukraine annexation, or Poland is on someone else’s watch.

    Have some damn courage.

11. Europe capitulates already lol, i mean it kind of makes sense because its over but so much for “replacing US”

12. If anyone thinks Russia will honor any such agreement and not invade again in the near future is a fool.

13. Because they know US support is about to be fully withdrawn.

Comments are closed.