Did Russia want to celebrate victory on Saturday? Slip-up in Russian state media reveals calculations by the Kremlin [German article; Translation in Comments]

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1. **Did Russia want to celebrate victory on Saturday? Slip-up in Russian state media reveals calculations by the Kremlin**

   A glitch in the Russian state media on Saturday gives an insight into the Kremlin’s calculations in the war against Ukraine: the Russian leadership apparently assumed a clear and quick victory against the Ukrainian armed forces.

   The resistance of the Ukrainian army, as demonstrated in the defense of Kiev on Saturday and the city of Kharkiv on Sunday, apparently came as a surprise to the Kremlin.

   This is suggested by an online comment published by the Russian news agency Ria Novosti and the propaganda portal Sputnik on Saturday morning – and deleted again. Apparently the article was a prepared text to be published as soon as Russia had defeated Ukraine militarily.

   The article is still accessible via the Wayback Machine online archive. It reveals the goals and ideological motives behind the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine – and its historical revisionist and nationalist-imperialist arguments are even more striking than previous statements by Russian politicians.

   It starts with the title: it contains an ambiguity, because “Наступление России и нового мира” can be translated as “The Dawn of Russia and the New World” or “The Attack of Russia and the New World”.

   The commentary suggests that the “new world” also means a new “Russian world” (Russki Mir). The Russki Mir concept was originally a cultural one, understanding all Russian-speaking people and nations as one community.

   In its ideological form, however, it is used by Russia “to legitimize Russian influence in the post-Soviet space,” as Ulrich Schmidt, Professor of Russian Culture and Society at the University of St. Gallen, wrote in an article for the Russian-German media portal “Dekoder.” analyzed.

   *How Russia wants to conjure up a new world*

   And so Ria columnist Pyotr Akopov writes in the now-deleted column that a “new world is being born” “before our eyes”. The “Russian military operation”, as Putin also calls the war of aggression in Ukraine, heralded a new era.

   The Russian world, i.e. the three states of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, would act geopolitically as a union. They are the three successor states to Kievan Rus’, a historical territory that spanned modern-day Ukraine, Belarus and western parts of Russia.

   Akopov refers to Ukraine as “Little Russia”. The name “Little Russia” has existed since the 14th century for areas on today’s territory of Ukraine and the term was also used in the Russian Empire: According to the understanding at the time, the Russians could be divided into three groups – the Great Russians, the Little Russians and the Belarusians . These historical analogies show how today’s Russia would like to stage itself: As big and powerful as the empire was.

   Russia has regained its historical borders in Europe – and the West is loudly angry about it, writes Akopov. Russia is in the process of restoring its unity and the tragedy of 1991 – the collapse of the Soviet Union – is over. In doing so, he is reporting on Putin’s view, who in his 2005 state of the nation speech described the end of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

   This unity has “a great price,” the column continues. The text alludes to losses on the Russian side in the Ukraine war. When the text was published on Saturday morning, Russian authorities made no mention of fallen Russian soldiers.

   Only on Sunday did the Defense Ministry admit that Russian soldiers had been killed. However, without naming a number. According to the Ukrainian authorities, more than 4,500 Russian soldiers are said to have fallen – but the information cannot be independently confirmed.

   *Russia wants to deny the West its influence*

   The Ria columnist portrays the Russian casualties of the war as victims of a “civil war” in which “brothers shoot at each other.” These statements make it clear: Russia sees Ukraine as part of Russia. In the past few days and weeks, Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have repeatedly emphasized that they do not recognize Ukraine as a legitimate, democratic state.

   According to Ria columnist Akopov, Vladimir Putin has – “without a drop of exaggeration,” as he emphasizes – accepted a historic responsibility by deciding “not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations”.

   Because the “return of Ukraine to Russia” would have become more difficult with every decade, according to his view and apparently also the view of the Russian state leadership. Because the “recoding” and “derussification” of Russians in Ukraine would continue.

   In doing so, the columnist denies Ukraine’s independence, which was established with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – and shows once again that the minimization of Russia’s sphere of influence since 1991 is a development that Putin apparently wants to reverse.

   To legitimize this, the narrative of “de-russification” is used – it suggests that Russia must prevent Ukraine from turning to the democratic West. Because – from the point of view of the Kremlin, as the previous argumentation showed – Ukraine is an integral part of the Russian sphere of influence, the “Russian world”.

   *The worst-case scenario of the Kremlin*

   The worst-case scenario for Russia, it seems, is “the West’s complete geopolitical and military control of Ukraine.” This feeds the Russian narrative of the Western threat to Russia.

   “Now this problem is solved,” writes Akopov. “Ukraine has returned to Russia.” Ukraine’s statehood should be preserved, but “restructured”. Within what limits, however, is not yet clear. These sentences confirm assessments by Russia experts that Putin had planned to reinstall a pro-Russian government in Ukraine.

   This is the one supposed triumph that the state media celebrated too soon. The second concerns the entire world: “Russia not only challenged the West, but also showed it that the era of Western global dominance is finally over,” the column concludes. The new world will not be built on the terms of the West or according to its rules.