President-elect Donald Trump’s moves to staff his new administration with Floridians in high-profile posts has scrambled Sunshine State politics for the immediate future and for the next election cycle.
Picking U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz to be Attorney General and National Security Advisor, respectively, will require Gov. Ron DeSantis to set special elections to fill their seats.
If sitting state lawmakers run for those spots it will trigger special elections for those seats, continuing a domino effect in the Panhandle area Gaetz represents and the northeast coast represented by Waltz.
But Gaetz and Waltz were also seen as potential candidates for the 2026 gubernatorial race to replace DeSantis, who is term-limited, so those moves may have upended that race as well.
More:Florida Gov. DeSantis calls for immediate special elections to replace GOP congressmen
Who might run for Florida governor after DeSantis in 2026
The potential GOP field to replace DeSantis is wide, reflecting the deep bench Republicans have in Florida. Every sitting Florida Cabinet member – Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis – could jump into the race.
Then there’s another member of Florida’s Congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Naples, a staunch supporter of Trump who is popular among the base and frequently appears on cable news to defend the president-elect.
Florida’s extensive list of billionaire residents could also opt to get in the race, as Democrat Jeff Greene did in 2018, or bankroll a candidate of their own.
Even if they don’t win, they could play a spoiler role, just as Greene did when he finished third in 2018. But his attack ads on Gwen Graham and Philip Levine doomed their chances in the Democratic primary.
On the Democrats’ side, potential candidates could be more wary of jumping in the race after Republicans comfortably won the U.S. Senate race, as Rick Scott kept his seat, and held onto their supermajority in both chambers of the Legislature. The results cemented Florida’s status as a GOP-leaning state.
Still, winning the governor race could swiftly bring Democrats back to relevance in Florida. Senate Democratic Leader Jason Pizzo of North Miami, Sen. Shevrin Jones of Miami Gardens, and U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Coral Springs are seen as possible candidates.
Who will DeSantis appoint as new Florida senator?
For Republicans, there’s still more dust to settle from Trump’s Sunshine State staffing selections before the 2026 picture comes into focus.
By tapping U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Miami, to be Secretary of State, Trump has handed DeSantis the opportunity of naming his replacement to the Senate.
Whomever DeSantis selects will serve for two years, with a special election set for 2026 to see who will serve the remaining two years of Rubio’s term.
The initial shortlist of potential Senate appointees includes Moody, a loyal DeSantis supporter. If she moves to the Senate, that would take another potential GOP gubernatorial candidate off the board.
DeSantis, though, could opt to pick someone who isn’t linked to the 2026 governor’s race, such as Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez or James Uthmeier, his chief of staff. The newly open Senate race in 2026, though, could still attract candidates who otherwise would’ve run for governor.
Gray Rohrer is a reporter with the USA TODAY Network-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at grohrer@gannett.com. Follow him on X: @GrayRohrer.