With a Trump administration returning, and a new emphasis on cutting the federal government’s size and spending co-led by SpaceX’s Elon Musk, one question is on a lot of minds: What does this mean for NASA?
Expect to see changes to the space agency’s hugely expensive Artemis return-to-the-moon program, a greater reliance on the private sector, efforts to cut through regulations that control what launches from where, and perhaps, a shift away from the moon and toward Mars, analysts said.
“I think that the Trump administration will want NASA to work with the private sector — to be a little more bold, a little more visionary, a little more aggressive in how they go about returning America to the moon and looking for earlier opportunities to do some things on Mars,” said James Muncy, founder of PoliSpace, a space policy organization.
Musk, who is also the CEO of Tesla, was invited by Trump to co-lead a Department of Government Efficiency, whose aim is to reduce government spending and waste, slash regulations and restructure federal agencies. In announcing the effort, Trump quoted Musk as saying, “this will send shockwaves through the system.” The Trump transition team likened it to “potentially, ‘The Manhattan Project’ of our time.”
While it remains to be seen what that effort will produce, expect some of the focus to be trained on space, a sector that Musk has already shaken up with SpaceX. While SpaceX holds multiple government contracts and has received billions in government funding over the years, opening the door for a potential conflict of interest, Musk has given no indication that NASA or space would be off his radar as he advises President-elect Donald Trump. While campaigning with Trump, Musk often turned to his own experiences with SpaceX for examples of what he deemed to be over-the-top regulations.
“SpaceX had to do this study to see if Starship would hit a shark,” Musk said at a pre-election Pennsylvania speech. “And I’m like ‘It’s a big ocean, you know. There’s a lot of sharks.” Musk said that SpaceX conducted the study, but was stopped again with questions about whales. “If the ship did hit the whale, obviously that whale had it coming,” Musk said to a laughing audience, after adding how big the Pacific Ocean is and how low the odds. “It would be like Final Destination −The Whale Edition.”
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So what might the space community expect to see when Trump’s back in the Oval Office:
Could NASA’s Artemis be cancelled?
Astronauts have not been to the moon since Apollo 17, which launched in late 1972.
NASA’s Artemis program aims to return humans to the moon as soon as 2026 — this time, continuing the missions with the longer-range goal of Mars. But the program has had huge cost overruns and long delays; and is anticipated to reach more than $93 billion in spending throughout 2025.
The Artemis program includes the Space Launch System launch vehicle (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft, which is designed by NASA and Lockheed Martin. Four astronauts will travel onboard the Orion spacecraft per mission.
SpaceX also plays a role; the company, which already is a major NASA launch provider and receiver of federal money under the commercial crew program, was tapped to land humans back on the moon.
The company’s Starship will be converted into a human lander which will ferry NASA astronauts from the Orion spacecraft to the lunar surface beginning with Artemis III in 2026. The Starship lander would be launched on the Starship Super Heavy rocket from Kennedy Space Center’s Pad 39A, where construction of a launch tower has already been underway. It would rendezvous with Orion in lunar orbit.
SpaceX was awarded the $2.89 billion contract to design the Starship lander back in 2021, beating out Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin. It is noteworthy that in 2023, NASA added a contract for an additional human lander. Blue Origin received that $3.4 billion NASA contract to design the second lunar lander called Blue Moon, which is scheduled to land humans on the moon during Artemis V in 2029.
The problem is: the Artemis program keeps falling behind schedule and adding up additional costs.
While the SLS rocket has launched once in 2022 during its 15 years of construction, Musk has taken Starship from an just an idea to launching the fully stacked vehicle five times in the past few years from Texas with the use of private money. Every time SpaceX launches, they learn and improve the design, said Muncy.
“He got all of that data, and he literally changed his design multiple times,” said Muncy. “The SLS design hasn’t fundamentally changed. They refined parts of it. They had to figure out parts of it. But, they haven’t been iterating it. They haven’t been changing parts of it.”
Artemis II is set for launch late next year, followed by the Artemis III moon landing goal in 2026.
Muncy told FLORIDA TODAY that part of the problem around NASA’s SLS stem from how it was created as part of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010. It was designed to carry over many elements of the retired Space Shuttle, such as the solid rocket boosters and engines. This was pitched as a way to not only help save costs on the program, but keep on contractors at Kennedy Space Center who worked on certain parts including Aerojet Rocketdyne and Northrop Grumman.
“The fixed costs of developing and operating the Space Launch System were going to be very high. And when fixed costs are very high, very little money goes into actually making the rockets and launching them,” Muncy said.
That’s why many are wondering openly if the SLS might be cancelled and a new rocket selected for Artemis missions.
Could NASA turn to SpaceX Starship and abandon SLS?
It’s possible NASA could work with private companies to get there — similar to how NASA is already working with SpaceX and Boeing to provide transportation to and from the space station under the Commercial Crew Program. The commercial crew program has been deemed a success, at least when it comes to SpaceX. Things have not gone well for Boeing — a thruster issue forcing NASA to keep astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, who flew on Boeing Crewed Flight Test, on the space station rather than risking their return on the troubled spacecraft. Starliner returned safely uncrewed, and NASA has stated that the Starliner-1 mission is tentatively scheduled for 2025.
SpaceX, meanwhile, has been successfully flying NASA crews since 2020. The company also provides the majority of NASA’s launch services for uncrewed exploration missions.
But work proceeds on SLS to get it ready to launch Artemis II, which would send a crew of four astronauts around the moon. Artemis I lifted off Pad 39B in November of 2022 − the 320-foot-tall SLS (Space Launch System) multistage rocket sending the Orion spacecraft around the moon and successfully back to Earth.
In July, the massive core stage of the SLS rocket arrived at Kennedy Space Center to begin preparation inside the NASA VAB ahead of stacking the rocket for launch.
While neither Starship Super Heavy nor SLS are ready just yet, it’s not inconceivable that a Trump administration would opt to just proceed with the Starship Super Heavy as the Artemis launch vehicle. That would mean reimagining Artemis, Muncy said.
“If you can launch Starship a whole bunch of times from the surface of the Earth to Earth orbit, and a Starship can be refueled in orbit, and go fly to the vicinity of the moon, and then fly from lunar orbit down to the surface of the moon … why don’t you just launch the people on Starship from the very beginning?”
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“Bottom line, somebody in the Trump administration is going to say ‘we want NASA and the private sector to collectively, as sort of a national space enterprise, we want them to go further, we want them to go faster, we want them to go more frequently, and we want them to go less expensively,” Muncy said.
SpaceX vs the FAA: Easing launch regulations
Musk’s influence in the Trump administration has left many in the space industry to wonder if launch regulations would ease for SpaceX. We may already be seeing the effect.
On Thursday, the day after Musk was named co-lead of Department of Government Efficiency, the Federal Aviation Administration released a statement announcing a new Aerospace Rulemaking Committee, which will working directly on updating the organization’s Part 450 launch and reentry licensing rule. The FAA said the reason is launch licenses are up 30% over the previous year, and 900% over the past decade.
“The FAA is seeking to update the licensing rule to foster more clarity, flexibility, efficiency, and innovation,” FAA Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, Kelvin B. Coleman said in a statement to FLORIDA TODAY.
USA Today reported last month that SpaceX has engaged in a public battle with the FAA over its Starship launches from Texas — the claims being SpaceX failed to follow launch license requirements. Musk responded by threatening to sue the FAA for overregulation.
“Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware. This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space,” SpaceX said in September.
Here in Florida, the Space Force and FAA are currently conducting environmental impact studies ahead of SpaceX’s plan to launch Starship from the Cape. The studies are looking into factors such as impacts to environment, wildlife, and surrounding structures. But before Starship even launches from Florida, it needs to be perfected in Boca Chica, Texas. This means things are going to have to move quicker, ensuring Starship is ready to meet the 2026 goal of landing humans on the moon.
“It’s going to be interesting to see in terms of the regulatory process with the environmental impact statements and the FAA licensing, whether that is more streamlined under the Trump administration,” said Laura Forczyk, head of Astralytical, a space industry consultation business.
“It might be that there are certain procedures that are shortened or cut, especially with the environmental impact statements,” said Forczyk. “That is going to be the biggest amount of pressure that Elon Musk puts on the Trump administration − is to quicken the process.”
Making changes to those regulations would not only impact SpaceX but also other launch companies, such as Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance.
Reaching Mars might be high on the agenda
Forczyk said that depending on Musk’s influence on the administration, sending humans to Mars — which was the long term goal of NASA’s Artemis — could become more of a priority.
Even at the Trump rallies, Musk sported a t-shirt reading Occupy Mars − a primary goal for SpaceX.
The company has ambitious plans to reach Mars with its Starship system as soon as 2026, utilizing the spaceship’s capability to refuel in space. That year is the best opportunity since the red planet will be closest to Earth − an occasion which happens only every few years. This first flight would be an uncrewed mission, with the goal of sending astronauts in the following years. That may not happen on that timescale but it illustrates how important Mars is to Musk’s vision.
“The Mars aspect of human exploration has been an afterthought, whereas, if Elon Musk is able to influence the Trump administration, Mars might become more of a forefront,” said Forczyk.
The shift towards private space and the goal of Mars would not necessarily be a bad thing for Cape Canaveral, the analysts said.
Robust private companies, more launches, and bigger goals could have an impact on the local economy.
“The question people at the Cape have to ask is ‘don’t you generally want more launches at the Cape….to employ people on a regular basis?'” Muncy said.
He noted, however, that not everyone will see it like that. Many work for NASA or as contractors of NASA and their jobs depend on SLS taking flight. Changes might mean layoffs.
But if the cost of launching and operating can become more affordable, more missions can happen, Muncy noted.
“The space community here would grow, especially SpaceX, but also other space companies would be able to grow faster,” said Forczyk.
Brooke Edwards is a Space Reporter for Florida Today. Contact her at bedwards@floridatoday.com or on X: @brookeofstars.