Putin may decide to swallow pride and ‘pretend nothing has happened’, analyst says

While Washington’s decision to let Ukraine use its long range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike targets inside Russia has prompted a number of dire warnings and threats from Moscow, there exists considerable doubt about the prospect of it provoking a major escalation in the conflict.

Among those speculating that any Russian response might be limited is Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

In line with other commentators, he said few believe that strikes in the Kursk region will change the outcome of this war.

“If, however, Ukraine were eventually allowed to use these missiles more broadly, then perhaps it could at least deter Russia’s strikes on its energy infrastructure by threatening retaliation against similar targets deep inside Russia,” he writes in The Spectator.

He said the US “must commit to staying in the game indefinitely” – something at odds with Donald Trump’s stated desire to quickly oversee a deal between Ukraine and Russia.

“The idea that the war can be ended on reasonable terms within just a few days or even months reflects a certain wishful thinking, a desire to ‘be done’ with Ukraine,” Radchenko said.

“The problem is that Putin does not play for the short term. He is committed to this war, and will not take the opportunity to end the war through compromise, even as ATACMSs come raining down.”

He continued: “Yet the Russian president knows very well that, for all his propagandistic claims, Russia is in fact not at war with the West, and bringing this war onto his head by targeting western bases or infrastructure – as the US intelligence suggested he might – would be extremely risky for a country that has so woefully underperformed on the battlefields of Ukraine.

“Putin may well decide that it is safer to swallow his pride and pretend nothing has happened. After all, it would not be the first time that his bluff has been called.”