Russia could launch attacks on Nato supply lines to Kyiv, target Nato assets in the region, or supply advanced weapons to the Houthis in response to the US decision to allow Ukraine to use US missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, defence policy analysts believe.
President Vladimir Putin warned in September that such a decision would bring Nato into direct conflict with Russia, claiming that Nato military personnel would be required to operate the weapons systems.
“This will mean that Nato countries… are at war with Russia,” he said. “We will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”
Putin has since announced revisions of Russia’s nuclear doctrine to state that an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state “with the participation or support of a nuclear state” would be considered a “joint attack” – although nuclear experts suggest such an event could have been covered by pre-existing doctrine.
In response to reports of the US policy shift on Sunday, Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, cited Putin’s comments in September and said it meant “a qualitatively new situation”, without giving an indication of how Russia could retaliate.
Putin has said he could consider supplying weapons to “regions of the world” involved in conflicts with the West as a “symmetrical” response to Nato allowing its weapons to be used to attack Russia.
Russia is already supplying targeting information to Yemen’s Houthi group that is used to strike Red Sea shipping through its ally Iran, according to European defence officials.
Konstantin Sivkov, a Russian military veteran analyst, said that escalating support to groups such as the Houthis was among the likeliest responses.
“The simplest, but very effective (response) – to transfer our high-precision, long-range weapons, capable of reliably hitting enemy ships, to countries that have difficult relations with the US,” he wrote in Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, citing Hezbollah and the Houthis.
“To act strategically exactly as the Americans do – to strike with someone else’s hands.”
Missile attack by Houthi militants on an unidentified ship in the Red Sea (Photo: Houthi Media Centre/Reuters)
Some Russian hawks proposed going further. Older Eddy, one of the most popular of Russia’s influential military bloggers, wrote on Telegram: “If such use of Nato’s long-range missiles takes place, the response can only be a strike on Nato’s own facilities. In particular, on the Rzeszow base (in southern Poland), the main logistics hub through which weapons are brought to the Ukrainians.”
Russia has previously issued threats to discourage Western support of Ukraine, such as warnings against sending tanks and fighter jets, without taking significant action when those steps were taken. The US also authorised limited cross-border strikes against Russian forces attacking Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine earlier this year without triggering retaliation.
But the Kremlin has never drawn such a clear and public red line as against deep strikes in Russia, said Dr Nikolai Sokov, who served in the foreign ministry of the Soviet Union and Russia, now a specialist on Russia’s foreign and defence policy at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
“This is the first red line that was officially drawn by Russia, and we are only crossing it now, so we don’t have any data to judge the Russian reaction,” he told i. “We are entering a time of high uncertainty.”
US MQ-9 Reaper drones carry out surveillance flights over the Black Sea (Photo: AP)
Moscow is likely to measure its response against the impact of US missile strikes, he said, with various options likely to be on the table. Supplying the Houthis is a possibility but this would require a “serious operation that would take time to implement”.
Russia could also target Nato surveillance drones operating close to Russian airspace that are believed to be supplying intelligence to the Ukrainian military.
“The most modest thing Russia could do would be to shoot down a (US) Reaper drone over the Black Sea,” said Dr Sokov.
“Reapers fly there collecting intelligence all the time… Shooting them down could be quite easy and drive the point home. And it’s unmanned so you don’t lose any lives.”
Moscow could also take aim at supply lines ferrying western military hardware to Ukraine.
“It is technically more challenging but I would not rule out serious strikes at rail lines and stations in the west of Ukraine, so that nothing could actually be delivered,” said Dr Sokov.
“There have been some strikes but they were rare and small scale.”
Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian political analysis journal Riddle, also believes Russia could respond by targeting Nato supply lines. This could pose an escalation risk depending on the “proximity of strikes to Poland”, he said.
Most of Ukraine’s supplies arrive through the Polish border. Russia is suspected of carrying out sabotage attacks against transport nodes inside the Nato member state.
The Kremlin’s first responses to reports of the policy shift have been cautious, Barbashin notes, with no direct threats. Escalation risks could be mitigated if the US maintains limits on Ukrainian strikes, such as avoiding population centres, he added.
Putin could also choose not to respond and wait out the Biden adminstration, with the Trump team thought to be less committed to support for Ukraine, some analysts suggest. US and Russian military specialists agree that looser restrictions on US missiles are unlikely to change the course of the war.
The Kremlin may write the US move off as a “Hail Mary” Barbashin said. “Putin clearly thinks he is winning. Russia knows the key issue for Ukraine is lack of soldiers.”