Why one veteran economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump’s victory

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-inflation-trump-tariffs-hard-landing-steve-hanke-2024-11

by Snowfish52

9 comments

  1. I mean yeah, if Trump does those Tariffs the Federal reserve will respond with massive interest rate hikes.

    That will, by design, cause mass layoffs. Because that’s *literally what interest rate hikes are supposed to do*.

    Businesses can’t get cheap capital, cut back, that triggers more cutbacks and then layoffs. We all lose our jobs and burn through our savings making us spend less.

    Which is supposed to reduce inflation (hint: it doesn’t, that only works if there’s competition and there is none).

    I’m so fucking sick and tired of how few people understand the most basic things about the economy…

  2. Stevie Wonder can see a recession coming. The 10/2 is uninverting, the Fed is lowering the rate at the short end to ease gov borrowing pain and satisfy social spending… and this is, of course, inflationary raising rates at the long end putting strain on the actual economy.

    Ultimately, it’s all just a show to see what event leads us to QE5 and beyond. The chance for a soft recession sans money printing isn’t really on the table with the gov’s debt servicing cost and needing a weaker dollar.

  3. Tariffs will definitely cause the economy to tank. My question is who will his administration blame then? Biden will be in Delaware eating a tub of ice cream by that point.

  4. Why do tariffs increase interest rate? If I slap a 40% tax on all imports, I guess that causes inflation which would trigger interest rates going up. M

  6. Because it’s the easiest, most obvious call one could make.

  7. the two things to come from dump’s 2nd term is p Diddy’s “suicide” in prison, and money printer going into overdrive. brrrrrrrr

  8. What was the other option?

    Trump has been clear about his policy – can anyone explain to me the logic behind how his policies would improve the economy? I mean even if it’s incorrect logic I’d still like to know.

  9. Haven’t we already been in a recession the past 3 years?

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