They don’t seem to have any elements that can manoeuvre above the company level, they have no organic artillery or any sort of CAP/CAS. Logistics seems to be an afterthought and most of their kit looks like it was found in a scrap yard. Recon and move to contact seem to be total alien to them as they seem to just moving in column with out without securing either line or flank.
Its amateur hour.
They thought Ukraine would fold like Afghanistan did.
They were wrong.
Inept but very big so it’s still a big problem.
I kinda think the Russian/Sovjet army was always like this.
They not that bad at zfighting Ukrainian grandmothers, or running over unarmed civilian cars with tsmks.
They have no concept of command and control. They cant maneuver at night and they cannot coordinate sir to ground operations.
Inept but unfortunately still big enough to murder tens or hundreds of thousands of innocent Ukrainians.
The only explanation I have for this scenario is that Putin has fallen for his own bullshit.
I think it was clear to everyone that was looking at Russia with clear eyes that Putin had been cultivating a cult of personality. However, I think that most people were overestimating Putin’s intelligence and savvy. I thought that Putin was creating this image for domestic purposes, to secure his rule, to make an enemy out of the west to justify the dictatorship he had built. Now I am starting to believe that Putin actually believes this shit. He has gone full-on megalomania, probably started to a long time ago. He wasn’t just creating a facade.
This is the only way that I can make sense of a situation where Putin himself would be so unaware of the state of his own armed forces. Everyone around him is so scared, or inept, that he never hears the truth about anything anymore. He reminds me of the stories about Stalin. It seems like almost all leaders succumb to this type of madness when they are allowed to have unlimited power for decades.
Tbf that article says a lot, but also not very much.
It fails to mention the lack of willingness for russians to fight a people’s they see as fraternal, especially with all the familial links.
It fails to touch at all on why the planes are not flying from Russia.
It says the majority of the army is conscripts, which I do not believe to be correct. Sources I see are closer to 1/4.
It also simplifies the issue to poor supply lines, and ignores the fact that Russia has prioritised a mad dash for large population centres, without securing their back line.
Whilst I expected Russia would struggle here, due to their underestimating the Ukrainians resolve (and people overestimating Russia’s army consistently), its a bit silly to go fully the opposite way and say the russian army is just bad.
Its correct that moral sucks, and that’s for a multitude of factors such as poor economic prospects at home, fairly meager conditions for those in the army, the fact they have been kept in the dark about their plans, they have had no contact with their family since crossing into Ukraine, the people they have met have not welcomed them as expected, they are likely aware as well of the large numbers of casualties they are taking which won’t help, and yes, the supply lines are terrible. Russia has denied they have fielded any conscripts, though given their track record there’s a good chance that’s a lie.
But Russia are operating on a fundamentally bad military strategy, and they are slaves to those orders.
Its not terribly different to the winter war, where the command and direction they are being given, is grossly unsuitable for the conflict they find themselves in.
Russia knows it can’t sustain a long war, and is putting all its chips on a quick surrender by capturing kiev. Unfortunately they have spent years now fighting proxy wars, and it seems they have not been replacing what they use. There’s speculation that they don’t have the guided munitions to field their aircraft, which right off the bat is killing their progress.
There was also speculation that the russians were saving their modem hardware for later in the war, when Ukraine had exhausted their nlaws, javelins and manpads. But it seems like their financial situation may be a factor here as well, they may not be able to afford to replace tanks that cost 16 million usd a piece (versus 1-3 million for soviet era pieces). They hoped to smash through the Ukranians, and take the citys in the first day’s. But Ukraine knew they had a disadvantage in the open field, and have consistently refused to fight on Russia’s terms. By this point they are well dug into the major cities, and dislodging them is not going to be an easy task, especially if the local population rallies to help.
Russia also avoided using masses of artillery in the early stages of the conflict, because their plan hinged on achieving support from the Ukranian populace (or at least the Eastern Ukraine with its large number of ethnic Russians). This is hard to do if you start killing civilians. I can only assume the russians thought they could do without.
Dismissing them as inept is potentially premature, as most of their failings hinge on self imposed problems. They can change their strategy and things could go south very quickly. We can already see the warning signs of this, they have been bombing kharkov constantly in the last 24 hours, and using increasingly large munitions to do it. They also decided to deploy chechen soldiers into Ukraine, who have none of the familiarity with the locals, that the regular /conscript troops have. They also have a brutal track record. This could be a precursor to them fighting a very different conflict. One where even if russia loses, it could be difficult to attribute Ukraine a victory.
Russians are just modern Nazis, in the original meaning of this word – they kill civilians for nothing, bombing civilians with thermobaric and cluster weapons, marauding and looting,
They even bomb Babyn Yar, where victims of German Nazis rest.
Infamous Azov is leftist in comparison to Russians.
Look at Kharkiv, at Zhytomyr, at Chernihiv, at Kherson, at Kyiv, at other cities.
They even kill their own wounded who cannot be evacuated.
They consider themselves liberators, but they are just butchers without a sign of conscience.
That is not about Ukraine and NATO, Ukraine and democracy, or something else, but about stupid hate for everything Ukrainian.
Just a thought.. the US army took 3 weeks to take Baghdad.
– same size military as Ukraine
– Ukraine is better equipped trained
– Ukraine weather is awful and the topography is difficult
– Appears Putin started slower in an attempt to hold some kind of favor with the Ukrainians for afterwards. They’re going to take the gloves off soon enough.
Well, are they inept or may there be some actual human beings in logistics sabotaging their own army?
12 comments
I hope he’s right 🇺🇦
They don’t seem to have any elements that can manoeuvre above the company level, they have no organic artillery or any sort of CAP/CAS. Logistics seems to be an afterthought and most of their kit looks like it was found in a scrap yard. Recon and move to contact seem to be total alien to them as they seem to just moving in column with out without securing either line or flank.
Its amateur hour.
They thought Ukraine would fold like Afghanistan did.
They were wrong.
Inept but very big so it’s still a big problem.
I kinda think the Russian/Sovjet army was always like this.
They not that bad at zfighting Ukrainian grandmothers, or running over unarmed civilian cars with tsmks.
They have no concept of command and control. They cant maneuver at night and they cannot coordinate sir to ground operations.
Inept but unfortunately still big enough to murder tens or hundreds of thousands of innocent Ukrainians.
The only explanation I have for this scenario is that Putin has fallen for his own bullshit.
I think it was clear to everyone that was looking at Russia with clear eyes that Putin had been cultivating a cult of personality. However, I think that most people were overestimating Putin’s intelligence and savvy. I thought that Putin was creating this image for domestic purposes, to secure his rule, to make an enemy out of the west to justify the dictatorship he had built. Now I am starting to believe that Putin actually believes this shit. He has gone full-on megalomania, probably started to a long time ago. He wasn’t just creating a facade.
This is the only way that I can make sense of a situation where Putin himself would be so unaware of the state of his own armed forces. Everyone around him is so scared, or inept, that he never hears the truth about anything anymore. He reminds me of the stories about Stalin. It seems like almost all leaders succumb to this type of madness when they are allowed to have unlimited power for decades.
Tbf that article says a lot, but also not very much.
It fails to mention the lack of willingness for russians to fight a people’s they see as fraternal, especially with all the familial links.
It fails to touch at all on why the planes are not flying from Russia.
It says the majority of the army is conscripts, which I do not believe to be correct. Sources I see are closer to 1/4.
It also simplifies the issue to poor supply lines, and ignores the fact that Russia has prioritised a mad dash for large population centres, without securing their back line.
Whilst I expected Russia would struggle here, due to their underestimating the Ukrainians resolve (and people overestimating Russia’s army consistently), its a bit silly to go fully the opposite way and say the russian army is just bad.
Its correct that moral sucks, and that’s for a multitude of factors such as poor economic prospects at home, fairly meager conditions for those in the army, the fact they have been kept in the dark about their plans, they have had no contact with their family since crossing into Ukraine, the people they have met have not welcomed them as expected, they are likely aware as well of the large numbers of casualties they are taking which won’t help, and yes, the supply lines are terrible. Russia has denied they have fielded any conscripts, though given their track record there’s a good chance that’s a lie.
But Russia are operating on a fundamentally bad military strategy, and they are slaves to those orders.
Its not terribly different to the winter war, where the command and direction they are being given, is grossly unsuitable for the conflict they find themselves in.
Russia knows it can’t sustain a long war, and is putting all its chips on a quick surrender by capturing kiev. Unfortunately they have spent years now fighting proxy wars, and it seems they have not been replacing what they use. There’s speculation that they don’t have the guided munitions to field their aircraft, which right off the bat is killing their progress.
There was also speculation that the russians were saving their modem hardware for later in the war, when Ukraine had exhausted their nlaws, javelins and manpads. But it seems like their financial situation may be a factor here as well, they may not be able to afford to replace tanks that cost 16 million usd a piece (versus 1-3 million for soviet era pieces). They hoped to smash through the Ukranians, and take the citys in the first day’s. But Ukraine knew they had a disadvantage in the open field, and have consistently refused to fight on Russia’s terms. By this point they are well dug into the major cities, and dislodging them is not going to be an easy task, especially if the local population rallies to help.
Russia also avoided using masses of artillery in the early stages of the conflict, because their plan hinged on achieving support from the Ukranian populace (or at least the Eastern Ukraine with its large number of ethnic Russians). This is hard to do if you start killing civilians. I can only assume the russians thought they could do without.
Dismissing them as inept is potentially premature, as most of their failings hinge on self imposed problems. They can change their strategy and things could go south very quickly. We can already see the warning signs of this, they have been bombing kharkov constantly in the last 24 hours, and using increasingly large munitions to do it. They also decided to deploy chechen soldiers into Ukraine, who have none of the familiarity with the locals, that the regular /conscript troops have. They also have a brutal track record. This could be a precursor to them fighting a very different conflict. One where even if russia loses, it could be difficult to attribute Ukraine a victory.
This article discusses the missing air force
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force
This one has an interesting discussion on what’s happened in the last few days, it’s well worth a listen
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
Russians are just modern Nazis, in the original meaning of this word – they kill civilians for nothing, bombing civilians with thermobaric and cluster weapons, marauding and looting,
They even bomb Babyn Yar, where victims of German Nazis rest.
Infamous Azov is leftist in comparison to Russians.
Look at Kharkiv, at Zhytomyr, at Chernihiv, at Kherson, at Kyiv, at other cities.
They even kill their own wounded who cannot be evacuated.
They consider themselves liberators, but they are just butchers without a sign of conscience.
That is not about Ukraine and NATO, Ukraine and democracy, or something else, but about stupid hate for everything Ukrainian.
Just a thought.. the US army took 3 weeks to take Baghdad.
– same size military as Ukraine
– Ukraine is better equipped trained
– Ukraine weather is awful and the topography is difficult
– Appears Putin started slower in an attempt to hold some kind of favor with the Ukrainians for afterwards. They’re going to take the gloves off soon enough.
Well, are they inept or may there be some actual human beings in logistics sabotaging their own army?
Logistics is one huge key for warfare.