MacMynowski, D. G. & Tziperman, E. Two-way feedback interaction between the thermohaline and wind-driven circulations. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 36, 914–929 (2006).
Timmermann, A. & Goosse, H. Is the wind stress forcing essential for the meridional overturning circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L20705 (2004).
Yang, H., Wang, K., Dai, H., Wang, Y. & Li, Q. Wind effect on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation via sea ice and vertical diffusion. Clim. Dyn. 46, 3387–3403 (2016).
Bryden, H. L., Longworth, H. R. & Cunningham, S. A. Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N. Nature 438, 655–657 (2005).
Häkkinen, S. & Rhines, P. B. Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s. Science 304, 555–559 (2004).
Böning, C. W., Scheinert, M., Dengg, J., Biastoch, A. & Funk, A. Decadal variability of subpolar gyre transport and its reverberation in the North Atlantic overturning. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L21S01 (2006).
De Coetlogon, G. et al. Gulf Stream variability in five oceanic general circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 36, 2119–2135 (2006).
Larson, S. M., Buckley, M. W. & Clement, A. C. Extracting the buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Clim. 33, 4697–4714 (2020).
Ma, X. et al. Evolving AMOC multidecadal variability under different CO2 forcings. Clim. Dyn. 57, 593–610 (2021).
Zhang, R. Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L20705 (2008).
Zhang, R. et al. A review of the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic multidecadal variability and associated climate impacts. Rev. Geophys. 57, 316–375 (2019).
Joyce, T. M. & Zhang, R. On the path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Clim. 23, 3146–3154 (2010).
Wen, N., Frankignoul, C. & Gastineau, G. Active AMOC–NAO coupling in the IPSL-CM5A-MR climate model. Clim. Dyn. 47, 2105–2119 (2016).
Sun, J., Latif, M. & Park, W. Subpolar gyre–AMOC–atmosphere interactions on multidecadal timescales in a version of the Kiel climate model. J. Clim. 34, 6583–6602 (2021).
Smeed, D. A. et al. The North Atlantic Ocean is in a state of reduced overturning. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 1527–1533 (2018).
Rahmstorf, S. et al. Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 475–480 (2015).
Thornalley, D. J. et al. Anomalously weak Labrador sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature 556, 227–230 (2018).
Caesar, L., McCarthy, G., Thornalley, D., Cahill, N. & Rahmstorf, S. Current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakest in last millennium. Nat. Geosci. 14, 118–120 (2021).
Weaver, A. J. et al. Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L20709 (2012).
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Garuba, O. A., Hu, A. & Nadiga, B. CMIP6 models predict significant 21st century decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086075 (2020).
Tietsche, S. et al. The importance of North Atlantic ocean transports for seasonal forecasts. Clim. Dyn. 55, 1995–2011 (2020).
Chafik, L., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Dangendorf, S., Reverdin, G. & Frederikse, T. North Atlantic ocean circulation and decadal sea level change during the altimetry era. Sci. Rep. 9, 1041 (2019).
Yang, H. et al. Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate. J. Geophys. Res. 121, 4928–4945 (2016).
Yang, H. et al. Poleward shift of the major ocean gyres detected in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL085868 (2020).
Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S.-P. & Hu, S. Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate. Sci. Adv. 6, eaaz4876 (2020).
Gervais, M., Shaman, J. & Kushnir, Y. Impacts of the North Atlantic warming hole in future climate projections: mean atmospheric circulation and the North Atlantic jet. J. Clim. 32, 2673–2689 (2019).
Frankignoul, C., de Coëtlogon, G., Joyce, T. M. & Dong, S. Gulf Stream variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 31, 3516–3529 (2001).
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G. & Saba, V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556, 191–196 (2018).
Marcello, F., Tonelli, M., Ferrero, B. & Wainer, I. Projected Atlantic overturning slowdown is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre. Commun. Earth Environ. 4, 92 (2023).
Kawase, M. Establishment of deep ocean circulation driven by deep-water production. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 17, 2294–2317 (1987).
Zhang, R. Latitudinal dependence of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L16703 (2010).
Huang, R. X., Cane, M. A., Naik, N. & Goodman, P. Global adjustment of the thermocline in response to deepwater formation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 759–762 (2000).
Johnson, H. L. & Marshall, D. P. A theory for the surface Atlantic response to thermohaline variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 32, 1121–1132 (2002).
Cessi, P., Bryan, K. & Zhang, R. Global seiching of thermocline waters between the Atlantic and the Indian–Pacific ocean basins. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L04302 (2004).
Peng, Q. et al. Surface warming-induced global acceleration of upper ocean currents. Sci. Adv. 8, eabj8394 (2022).
Chen, C., Liu, W. & Wang, G. Understanding the uncertainty in the 21st century dynamic sea level projections: The role of the AMOC. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 210–217 (2019).
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L. & Zeng, F. The impact of multidecadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations on the Southern ocean. Clim. Dyn. 48, 2065–2085 (2017).
Peng, Q. et al. Indonesian throughflow slowdown under global warming: remote AMOC effect versus regional surface forcing. J. Clim. 36, 1301–1318 (2023).
Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S. & von Hardenberg, J. Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response. Nat. Commun. 12, 3659 (2021).
Bellomo, K. & Mehling, O. Impacts and state-dependence of AMOC weakening in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2023GL107624 (2024).
Köhl, A. Evaluating the GECCO3 1948–2018 ocean synthesis–a configuration for initializing the MPI-ESM climate model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 2250–2273 (2020).
Balmaseda, M. A., Trenberth, K. E. & Källén, E. Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1754–1759 (2013).
Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M. A., Tietsche, S., Mogensen, K. & Mayer, M. The ECMWF operational ensemble reanalysis–analysis system for ocean and sea ice: a description of the system and assessment. Ocean Sci. 15, 779–808 (2019).
Gent, P. R. et al. The community climate system model version 4. J. Clim. 24, 4973–4991 (2011).
Liu, W., Duarte Cavalcante Pinto, D., Fedorov, A. & Zhu, J. The impacts of a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO in a warmer climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50, e2023GL103025 (2023).
Ren, X. & Liu, W. The role of a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in modulating marine heatwaves in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2021GL095941 (2021).
Lee, Y.-C. & Liu, W. The weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation diminishes recent Arctic sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50, e2023GL105929 (2023).
Lee, Y.-C., Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Feldl, N. & Taylor, P. C. Impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening on Arctic amplification. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 121, e2402322121 (2024).
Kay, J. E. et al. The community earth system model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1333–1349 (2015).
Rodgers, K. B. et al. Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability. Earth Syst. Dyn. 12, 1393–1411 (2021).
Ziehn, T. et al. The Australian earth system model: access-esm1.5. J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci. 70, 193–214 (2020).
Gutjahr, O. et al. Max Planck institute earth system model (MPI-ESM1. 2) for the high- resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP). Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 3241–3281 (2019).