> Trade will have as much bearing as tanks on Ukraine’s endgame, and the West’s hand is weak
> The entire western strategy against Russia is an economic one. The economic implications of the current conflict can be broken down into three broad areas.
> The first concerns financial markets over the next few weeks and months, particularly commodity prices. In economics terms, Russia is a large petrol station, with a productive wheat farm attached to it. As well as being the second largest oil exporter in the world, Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
> The second area that will be critical over the coming months is the extent to which economic and financial sanctions will deter Moscow. There are various types of restrictions, beginning with the mafia boss approach, where the West treats Putin like a mafia don and makes life uncomfortable for the Russian oligarchs whom he has fostered and who in turn bolster him.
> The third economic area of concern will be the impact of this war on the entire global economy. Are we now hurtling towards a recession, as inflation rises and international demand slows, revealing the underlying fractures in the world economy, not least the huge build-up of debt in the West and China? Is Putin’s greatest weapon the very instrument that the West is hoping to use against him, namely the assumed strength of the western economy?
This thing is going to escalate massively as an economic war
There are going to be price increases for everyone
I’m a bit of a renewable energies and electrification nut because of what it will do for air quality, but have been feeling recently that the biggest win of transitioning off fossil fuels could actually be stopping the vast sums of money we send to regimes in Russia, Saudi etc. which use that money to inflict misery on us and others like the Ukrainians around the world. The invasion of Ukraine is funded by oil (~50% of the Russian economy) and Putin’s greatest weapon is oil, it’s why the West cannot enforce much stricter sanctions.
I get that my position on this might be clouded by my zealousness, but the Ukraine invasion will end up costing the world economy hundreds of billions, wars in the Middle East have cost trillions, how about we start spending that kind of money on transitioning off what Putin is selling us, so we can take a real stand when he tries to invade the next country? Other benefits including no further reason to interfere in the Middle East, no more sending money to terrorist organisations there, and of course cleaner air.
McWilliams is already out of date.
With the Germans tripling their defence budget on the weekend and giving the go ahead for German weapons to be shipped to Ukraine by the train load and the EU approving the shipment of Russian-built Migs to Ukraine the west aren’t keeping it as just an economic war.
Plus the Ukrainian’s stunning success at hitting Russian convoys all but screams that the west are providing them with real-time satellite Intel of Russian movements to allow them to coordinate their defence.
Not to mention Russia is under 24/7 cyber war now and even their own defence ministry released info showing the thousands of DDOS attacks from all continents bar Antarctica.
The west are getting involved in every manner but troops on the ground.
Russia overplayed its hand and now their economy is getting as battered as their army. An economy smaller than Italy’s lest anyone forget.
Russia has acted the cunt to too many people for too long.
If Putin knows that and now the west now knows that Putin knows and now Putin knows the west knows that Putin knows …
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Some excerpts:
> Trade will have as much bearing as tanks on Ukraine’s endgame, and the West’s hand is weak
> The entire western strategy against Russia is an economic one. The economic implications of the current conflict can be broken down into three broad areas.
> The first concerns financial markets over the next few weeks and months, particularly commodity prices. In economics terms, Russia is a large petrol station, with a productive wheat farm attached to it. As well as being the second largest oil exporter in the world, Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
> The second area that will be critical over the coming months is the extent to which economic and financial sanctions will deter Moscow. There are various types of restrictions, beginning with the mafia boss approach, where the West treats Putin like a mafia don and makes life uncomfortable for the Russian oligarchs whom he has fostered and who in turn bolster him.
> The third economic area of concern will be the impact of this war on the entire global economy. Are we now hurtling towards a recession, as inflation rises and international demand slows, revealing the underlying fractures in the world economy, not least the huge build-up of debt in the West and China? Is Putin’s greatest weapon the very instrument that the West is hoping to use against him, namely the assumed strength of the western economy?
This thing is going to escalate massively as an economic war
There are going to be price increases for everyone
I’m a bit of a renewable energies and electrification nut because of what it will do for air quality, but have been feeling recently that the biggest win of transitioning off fossil fuels could actually be stopping the vast sums of money we send to regimes in Russia, Saudi etc. which use that money to inflict misery on us and others like the Ukrainians around the world. The invasion of Ukraine is funded by oil (~50% of the Russian economy) and Putin’s greatest weapon is oil, it’s why the West cannot enforce much stricter sanctions.
I get that my position on this might be clouded by my zealousness, but the Ukraine invasion will end up costing the world economy hundreds of billions, wars in the Middle East have cost trillions, how about we start spending that kind of money on transitioning off what Putin is selling us, so we can take a real stand when he tries to invade the next country? Other benefits including no further reason to interfere in the Middle East, no more sending money to terrorist organisations there, and of course cleaner air.
McWilliams is already out of date.
With the Germans tripling their defence budget on the weekend and giving the go ahead for German weapons to be shipped to Ukraine by the train load and the EU approving the shipment of Russian-built Migs to Ukraine the west aren’t keeping it as just an economic war.
Plus the Ukrainian’s stunning success at hitting Russian convoys all but screams that the west are providing them with real-time satellite Intel of Russian movements to allow them to coordinate their defence.
Not to mention Russia is under 24/7 cyber war now and even their own defence ministry released info showing the thousands of DDOS attacks from all continents bar Antarctica.
The west are getting involved in every manner but troops on the ground.
Russia overplayed its hand and now their economy is getting as battered as their army. An economy smaller than Italy’s lest anyone forget.
Russia has acted the cunt to too many people for too long.
If Putin knows that and now the west now knows that Putin knows and now Putin knows the west knows that Putin knows …