The past year has been marked by profound instability across the Middle East and the Enlarged Mediterranean, with the devastating war in Gaza emerging as the principal destabilizing force. Rooted in decades of unresolved tensions and sparked by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the conflict has escalated into a humanitarian catastrophe of exceptional scale, with a staggering civilian toll and wide-reaching geopolitical ramifications. Over the past year, its ripple effects have spread across multiple theaters, including Lebanon, involving both state and non-state actors and fundamentally altering the region’s dynamics. What are the geopolitical and geo-economic consequences of this prolonged turmoil? How has the war in the Middle East reverberated from the Gulf to North Africa? And beyond the conflict, what broader economic, social, political, and diplomatic forces are reshaping the region’s trajectory and its global relationships?
Prepared for the 10th edition of the Rome MED Mediterranean Dialogues, this Special Dossier delves into these and many more critical questions, trying to offer a comprehensive analysis of the trends and scenarios shaping the region.
Table of Contents
The Gaza War and the Future of Regional Geopolitics
1.1 Who is Leading the Middle East?, Valeria Talbot
1.2 Amidst Unprecedented Threats, Palestinians Face Crisis of Leadership, Omar Rahman
1.3 One Year On, Israeli Society Still Grapples With October 7, Nimrod Goren
1.4 Hezbollah After Nasrallah, Lina Khatib
1.5 Iran’s Long Game in a Region on the Brink, Sara Bazoobandi
The Geoeconomic Impact of War in the Middle East
2.1 The Repercussions of the War in Gaza and the Middle East Escalation
on Regional Economies, Alia Moubayed
2.2 What Future for Connectivity in the Middle East?, Alessandro Gili, Roberto Italia
2.3 Assessing the Consequences of an (Unlikely) War in Hormuz, Simone Urbani Grecchi
2.4 How War has Affected Israel’s Economy, DataLab ISPI
The Stable Instability in North Africa
3.1 Algeria’s Quest for Security in a Region of Competing Influences, Jacob Mundy
3.2 Tunisia: Examining Saïed’s Migration Policy in a Time of Crisis, Aldo Liga
3.3 Libya: The Roots of a Unyielding Status Quo, Oliver Windridge
3.4 The Economic Recovery of a Clay-Footed Egypt, Alessia Melcangi
3.5 The Sahel Turmoil Reverberates Towards the Seas, Luca Raineri
3.6 The Unstable Stability of Morocco and Relations Across the Western Mediterranean,
Irene Fernàndez-Molina
The Gulf Monarchies Between Regional Politics and International Strategies
4.1 Gulf Monarchies’ Bolder Multipolar Moment, Eleonora Ardemagni
4.2 GCC Struggles: Internal Rivalries, Fragmentation and Lost Opportunities, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
4.3 Navigating Rivalries and Building Alliances: The GCC in a Multipolar World, Yusuf al Bulushi
4.4 Gulf Investments in China: A New Era of Strategic Partnerships?, Layla Ali
The Future of North-South Relations: The EU and the MENA Region
5.1 Gaza as Europe’s Mirror: Reflections on EU Policy in the Middle East, Eduard Soler i Lecha
5.2 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership: Three Decades of Trials and Triumphs, Caterina Roggero
5.3 Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean: Down, but for How Long?, Matteo Villa
5.4 The EU-GCC Strategic Partnership in the Shadow of the Gaza War, Camille Lons
