A week of massive changes in Ukraine war – and why they all matter

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1. The final remark makes alot of sense:

   >This week’s developments may not be the start of the war escalating out of control – but the start of a tussle for the strongest negotiating position in potential future talks to end it.

   It’s pretty clear that the escalations from both sides take aim at showing strength and getting leverage for the coming negotiations.

   For instance, IIRC Ukraine does not have access to an infinite supply of ATACMS, so they are not going to last for long and are not likely to dramatically change the direction of the war.

   Likewise, it’s extremely unlikely that Russia would *actually* use nukes, especially seeing as they would risk getting the cold hand from China if they did.

   So it’s all about signaling.

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