Trump wants a deal on Ukraine. But a bad deal is worse than none. If Trump leaves Ukraine dismembered, America will look weak and dictators will feel emboldened.

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1. Trump wants a deal on Ukraine. But a bad deal is worse than none.
   Editorial Board
   5–6 minutes

   Both Russia and Ukraine have been escalating their bloody conflict, now past the 1,000-day mark, seeking maximum advantage before Jan. 20, when President-elect Donald Trump will take office and probably bring a different U.S. policy toward the war. For Russia, escalation is about saving face — expelling Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk region — and grabbing as much Ukrainian territory as it can. For Ukraine, it’s a matter of surviving with its sovereignty and as much of its preinvasion territory as possible.

   Escalation might be a hard concept to grasp in a savage struggle that has led to an estimated 1 million casualties. Russian President Vladimir Putin began raising the stakes this fall when he invited thousands of North Korean troops to augment his thinly stretched and decimated military. Ukraine responded with strikes inside Russian territory using British and American long-range missiles, albeit only after the Biden administration finally lifted its restriction on the use of such weaponry. The Russians have responded by firing a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile — thankfully not armed with the nuclear warheads such missiles are capable of carrying — at a Ukrainian weapons factory in Dnipro. President Joe Biden has agreed to provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines, weapons with a record of causing civilian casualties, but also perhaps the only things that can help Ukraine hold its lines against Russian and North Korean infantry assaults.

   The reason for this surge in fighting is clear: Mr. Trump seems inclined to strike a quick deal to end the conflict once he takes office. He has been vague about what an eventual deal would look like, promising only that he would swiftly solve the conflict upon taking office — or perhaps, somehow, even before. Vice President-elect JD Vance was more specific, saying an eventual settlement would probably entail a “demilitarized zone” that would include lands currently occupied by Russia. Hence the Kremlin’s drive to grab as much additional land as possible before Inauguration Day, and Ukraine’s desperate bid to resist it.

   Ukraine’s European backers have shown signs of war-weariness and might be more amenable to a settlement. But the danger for Ukraine is that in his interest to strike a quick deal, Mr. Trump might settle for a bad one. A truce that ratifies Ukraine’s de facto dismemberment and leaves Ukrainians feeling disillusioned and betrayed by their Western backers would reward Mr. Putin’s aggression and encourage him to commit more of it.

   Not only Mr. Putin. An abandonment of Ukraine — or a deal that leaves Ukraine untenably territorially diminished — would signal to dictators around the world that Western resolve comes with an expiration date. Imagine how Chinese President Xi Jinping would take a Western retreat from Ukraine as he contemplates taking Taiwan or the atolls and shoals in the oil-rich South China Sea. It’s not too soon to wonder — and worry — whether North Korea’s Kim Jong Un regards his army’s mission against Ukraine as preparation for a military move of his own on the Korean Peninsula.

   The Ukrainians have fought valiantly but often with one hand tied behind their back. American and European assistance has been generous from the onset but often came late and with too many strings attached. First there was a reluctance to send M1 Abrams tanks, then to supply F-16 fighter jets, then to grant permission for using long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. Mr. Biden eventually acquiesced in each case, but long after the weapons might have made a decisive difference on the battlefield. The fear each time was sparking an escalation with Russia. The intent seemed to be that Russia could not be permitted to win, but Ukraine would be given just enough not to lose.

   A Ukraine left with a chunk of its eastern territory under Russian occupation is tantamount to a defeat — for Ukraine and for the West. During the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump made much of the Biden administration’s precipitous and ill-planned withdrawal from Afghanistan, which Mr. Trump said signaled to the world American weakness. An abandonment of Ukraine, after nearly three years of what has been a unified American and European front, would send the same sort of signal. And if it came as a result of Mr. Trump’s negotiated deal, the onus would be on him. He won’t have Mr. Biden to blame anymore.

2. Another interesting piece from todays WP https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/26/biden-ukraine-missiles-land-mines-negotiations/

   > Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly complained that America’s habit of saying no when they ask for advanced weapons, only to say yes a few months later, makes the weapons less effective than if they were sent when initially requested. Inside the administration, the Ukrainian requests have often opened divides, with Blinken and the State Department frequently more comfortable granting them than Biden or the Defense Department.

   ___________________
   >
   > Once taboo, a quiet recognition is spreading among Kyiv’s European backers that peace negotiations may require Ukraine to give up some territory to Russia. They are now contemplating what security guarantees Ukraine might receive in return to deter Russia from future attacks.
   >
   > Blinken made a one-day visit to NATO headquarters earlier this month, and European officials said he brought one central message: “We’re going to do everything we can to reinforce Ukraine before Trump takes office, and you guys should do the same.”

3. Trump got elected. Russia/republicans won. Fake tough guy is already a win for dictators around the world.

4. It’s coming and it’s written on the social media wall of countless useful idiots across America.

   Ukrainians are being laughed about, chastised, doubted, insulted and all manner of other sleights because they have the audacity to take a stand against a dictator and his genocidal ambition. The same dictator who’s army of social media bots flood our airwaves with false stories and made up claims.

   Where is the right wing persecution of massed killings, child deportation, destruction of homes, businesses, livelihoods? The condemnation of the attacks on the energy sector, the hospitals, the schools and institutions that stand up for Ukrainian values?

   Increasingly silent.

   The framing is very much turning against the common Ukrainian Victim, and for what? Nothing really. The right is a parody of itself. The fact these fucking idiots can’t see it is both laughable and rage inducing.

   The home owner fantasy, about standing up and defending you and your family against an aggressor, an invader, a rapist, a murderer. Russia is all of these things and Ukraine is none. It should be a straight sell to every American who’s ever stood up and sang about a star spangled banner.

5. Sadly I don’t buy this argument. Trump wants the war to stop so a bad deal is better than no deal for him

   All he needs then is for Putin to honour it for the remainder of his term and if anything goes wrong in future Trump just says ‘i did a great deal but my successor ruined it. Very sad, so sad blah blah’

   Any deal will takes months to negotiate and further months to implement. Then a wobbly post-Minsk style interregnum until Trump leaves. I can see Putin finding that acceptable as long as he hasn’t had to cave on any major issues

6. I dont think that Trump will feel that US looks weak and if he does, he doesn’t care.

7. I’ve been thinking alot about Ukraines cards since the Trump win , and honestly I went from oh there fucked , to believing Zelenski has the better cards and the balls to call Trumps bluff ..

   I won’t ramble on about the many reasons it would be bad for Trumps America to pull out out or even choke Ukraine.

   I am super curious what the horde thinks about The nuclear factor seeing how Joe Rogan highlighted so fearfully recently.

   What is America’s commitment to avoiding a nuclear war ..

   The Americans are big reason why European countries are not riddled with nukes , while they might not have a commitment to Ukraine there are plenty of non nuclear Nato countries watching right now as America essentially threatens to pull aid from a non nuclear power being swallowed by a nuclear power .. What effect will this have on countries like Germany , Norway, Finland, Poland who look to Nato , mainly the Americans for a nuclear detoriance..

   How does watching them

   a) leverage a non nuclear power to bend the knee in negotiations to a nuclear power or
   b) letting a nuclear power forcefully take a non nuclear power

   Effect their decision in remaining a non nuclear power after Ukraine has fallen . Does watching the American government flinch in response to Russia discourage and place doubt on the alliance that will supposably protect them from a nuclear power .

   I guess my question is if America ducks this fight to avoid the possibility of a nuclear war does it only increase the chances of a nuclear war with in our lifetime .. We are not in a cold war right now , but could America’s actions trigger a nuclear arms race with in the European countries for defense agianst Russian agresson, especially the wealthy but far less populated country’s..

   Lets be real , if countrys like Germany , Norway for two examples, wanted to begin the process it wouldn’t take too long , especially if aided by Great Britton or France .. I know merica has that lend a nuke program, but who is goimgnto bet on them actually lett8ng them use it as a leverage/deterrent if the times comes. Especially with this war raging and the man who threatened to disengage from nato previous at the helm once agian ..

   I’m more confused then ever haha , there’s alot at stake but I’m quite confident there’s to much at stake for America to bail anyways. Plus Trump couldn’t even get his nomination for AT approved by his own party , and there is still alot of support for Ukraine mixed in the Republican party along with the maga

8. Bone Spurs only cares about himself.

9. With Trump as president, America is weak, never mind how we look.

   Every dictator on earth will be able to get something out of him with just a tiny bit of flattery.

10. Spoiler alert!

    The US already looks weak.

11. I can hear it now:

    *”It’s been [x number of days] since Trump broke his promise regarding Ukraine. Trump has failed yet again.”*

12. I’m surprised this is not talked about more. Would make Afghan withdrawal look like candy land

13. Lets be real. Ukraine has already lost. They dont have the man power, or means to produce the weapons they need. And America cant keep giving them billions of dollars worth of weapons. Ukraine is loosing ground everyday.

14. A weak USA is the whole point of Trumps presidency.

15. This has been proven time and again from Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement, to the US doing nothing for Georgia or Ukraine at the start. The IS *knew* Russia was doing to invade; they should have been conducting training exercises with Ukraine with US troops and air power inside Ukraine. Then Russia would NEVER have attacked UKR for fear of nato and Armageddon.

16. Well, trump already feels emboldened.

17. Before the election Trump needed Putin’s help.

    Now he,s elected.

    So it’s probably , What have you done for me lately.

18. America is weak. Europe needs to step up or Ukraine will fall. Franco-english expeditionary force.

19. Trump isn’t the only one who needs a win. Putin needs it much more than Trump. Russian hardliners won’t accept status quo which is much less than what Putin promised and delivered at a great cost. The Russian hardliners won’t acknowledge publicly but privately know the real cost of this war to Russia. Not going to be easy to get Ukraine and Russia to agree to status quo. At a minimum, Ukraine needs to be fast tracked into NATO to ensure no future invasion if they have to give up claims to Crimea and DonBas.

20. Dictators are already emboldened with poppy pants joe Biden and cackling Kamala in office.
    Also how did you know that the deal will even be bad? Oh wait you don’t. Just making assumptions

21. As holy unfit as he is I do think he will be firm. Not because it’s the right thing to do, but because they plastered his Mrs all over state tv and laughed at it. He won’t like that. It’s playground shit.

22. They don’t care about any dictators except China and Iran sadly…they’ll gladly allow Russian hegemony in Eastern Europe.

23. The only deal is for Russia to surrender.

    Or send money until they run out of men.

    Only so many meat waves they can send before there is noone left.

24. I think Europe must REALLY not like Trump.

25. Pumpkinfuhrer and the conservative republican party is the party of **nope** no hope, no future no balanced government just the party of 💩

26. “But a bad deal is worse than none.”
    I really hope some of the family members of the editorial board are sent to the frontlines.

    “If Trump leaves Ukraine dismembered, America will look weak and dictators will feel emboldened.”
    Ah! Yes! just as it happened when they left Vietnam and Afghanistan…

27. America already looks weak.

    Israel has been the best ally Russia could have hoped for by making the US look like the enablers of evil they are.

    Add to that the waffling on funding, and it all spells bad for Ukraine.

    Slava Ukraine!

28. America already looks extremely weak regardless

29. America doesn’t look weak. It IS weak. It’s too internally fractured and full of whiplash between the parties’ policies to be dependable any longer.

    Europe better wake up, the world needs a new, competent Democracy based super power ASAP. Because America is very likely slowly fading out as a global power.

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