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The Biden Administration’s Curtain Call
Quill Robinson, Assistant Director and Associate Fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program and Zach Slotkin, Intern, Energy Security and Climate Change Program
Questions about the future of U.S. climate leadership loomed large at COP29, which began just days after former president Trump’s victory.
But Trump’s reelection wasn’t an elephant in the room—instead, Biden administration officials addressed it directly. Throughout the two-week conference, White House advisers and cabinet secretaries argued that U.S. economic interests make a climate policy U-turn unlikely, pointing to the bipartisan support of several Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provisions. Governors, mayors, and CEOs reassured conferencegoers that if Trump exits the global climate conversation, subnational actors and private companies will ensure the U.S. stays engaged.
Still, engaging in global climate negotiations will not be a national priority for the incoming administration. Trump’s team has reportedly prepared an executive order to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, distancing the U.S. from global climate collaboration. Trump may scale back the United States’ COP29-related climate commitments, especially as he directs U.S. strategy away from renewables adoption toward oil and gas deregulation.
But while Trump is poised to take a backseat on climate at the international level, his trade and economic policies might deliver substantial progress. Efforts to de-risk supply chains from China—a focal point of his presidential campaign—could invigorate the clean energy industry in the United States, especially if he keeps in place IRA tax incentives for domestic manufacturing. Chris Wright, his pick for energy secretary, has expressed support for nuclear energy and liquefied natural gas exports. His trusted trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, has signaled interest in climate-linked trade policies, such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism.
The last COP of the Biden era highlighted the outgoing president’s achievements, but now, Trump is about to take center stage. His “America First” agenda promises a sharp pivot in international climate engagements, but it’s less clear what that means for progress at home.