We still have weeks to go before the winter season officially starts, but weather forecasters have already been taking a deep dive into the future, analyzing the atmospheric trends and issuing early predictions on how cold and snowy it might be.
After three consecutive winters with below-average snow in New Jersey, is it time to dust off those snow shovels and snowblowers? Or can we keep them tucked away in the back corner of the garage?
Here’s a rundown of early winter outlooks for the 2024-2025 season issued by the National Weather Service, AccuWeather and other private forecasting companies.
AccuWeather
AccuWeather is predicting warmer than average temperatures and less snow than normal in the Garden State this upcoming winter, as well as in many major cities and metro regions in the eastern U.S., including New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston.
For snow enthusiasts, the winter forecast looks better in much of interior New England and other parts of the far northern U.S.
Forecasters from AccuWeather say warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and northern Pacific, a weak La Niña weather pattern and a tight polar vortex are three major factors contributing to this winter’s weather outlook.
Forecasters from AccuWeather are predicting less snow than normal this upcoming winter season in many major cities, including New York and Philadelphia.AccuWeather
Climate Prediction Center
In their winter outlook for the 2024-2025 season released on Oct. 17, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center — affiliated with the National Weather Service — said a slowly developing La Niña weather pattern will likely play a role in how the upcoming season shapes up.
The agency is predicting warmer than average temperatures in the Garden State — along with New York and most of Pennsylvania — but offered no firm predictions on how wet or snowy the upcoming winter season will be in these areas of the country.
The winter outlook says there are “equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation” for the New Jersey region.
Not too helpful for skiers, snow boarders and snow plow operators.
U.S. forecasters are predicting warmer than normal temperatures and no clear signs of more snow or less snow than normal in the New Jersey region this upcoming winter.Climate Prediction Center | NOAA
NY NJ PA Weather
In its winter forecast, issued in late October, the private NY NJ PA Weather forecasting company said a “slowly developing La Niña, a strengthening polar vortex, and very warm waters in the tropical Atlantic” will all be big factors in the upcoming winter’s temperatures and storm patterns.
“The polar jet stream will be more amplified than not, supporting a high threat of storms over the eastern two-thirds of the nation,” the Monmouth County-based company said.
NY NJ PA Weather says New Jersey’s northwestern region can expect near-average temperatures and near-normal to slightly above-normal snowfall accumulation this winter.
Most of northern and central New Jersey will likely have near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and near-normal to slightly below-normal snowfall. But the company says a pattern shift could bring slightly higher snowfall to those areas of the state.
South Jersey will likely see above-average temperatures and below-normal snowfall accumulation this winter. But the company can’t rule out the potential for “significant accumulating snowfall” in this region.
High-terrain areas in northwestern New Jersey got a surprise snowstorm on Nov. 21 into Nov. 22, 2024, with 12 inches of snow falling in parts of Sussex County and a whopping 20 inches of snow measured in High Point State Park. Shawn Viggiano
Farmers’ Almanac
Snow lovers in New Jersey will probably like the winter forecast issued by the Farmers’ Almanac. (New Jersey is part of the publication’s Northeast forecast zone.)
“Winter in New England and the Northeast will be stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to above-normal temperatures,“ the publication says.
“Snow will be most prevalent over the interior and mountainous terrains,” it added, “while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, especially near and along the I-95 corridor.”
The Farmers’ Almanac is predicting above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to above-normal temperatures this winter in the New Jersey region and most of the Northeast.Farmers’ Almanac
Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, a rival publication of the Farmers‘ Almanac, is predicting a “calmer, gentler winter” season across much of the United States, including New Jersey.
For New Jersey, the New York City metro region and eastern Pennsylvania, it is calling for milder temperatures than normal and also less snow than average for the upcoming winter season.
“We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter —potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years,” said Carol Connare, editor-in-chief of the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a “calmer, gentler” winter season for most of the United States, including New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the New York City metro region.Courtesy The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac
First day of winter
By the way, weather agencies like the National Weather Service consider the first day of winter to be Dec. 1, with the winter season covering all of December, January and February.
The more common winter season, known as the astronomical winter, starts on Dec. 21, 2024 and runs through March 20, 2025.
Astronomical seasons are based on the position of the Earth and the sun, while meteorological seasons are based on annual temperature cycles.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.