Moldova’s presidential poll and EU referendum: Moldovan citizens living in Russia queue to vote, Moscow, 20 October 2024
Sefa Karacan · Anadolu · Getty
Georgians and Moldovans went to the polls in October for the first time since Brussels granted them official EU candidate status. Georgia’s were parliamentary elections, while Moldova chose a president and voted on constitutional change to enable EU integration.
Western politicians expected a landslide for pro-European parties, banking on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine alienating voters. But official results show 53% of Georgians supported the ruling party, dubbed pro-Russian by its opponents. And in Moldova, while pro-European president Maia Sandu secured over 54% of votes in the second round, the yes vote for constitutional change just scraped through, winning only 50.5%. Sandu’s supporters attributed these mixed results to Russian interference, a view echoed by Western governments and media. But, although Moscow undoubtedly seeks to influence its neighbours, Europeans are mistaken if they think this is the sole cause.
Georgia (population 3.9 million) and Moldova (2.6 million) have several features in common: both are small post-Soviet republics contending with pro-Russian separatism and significant emigration to Russia and Western Europe. After being long sidelined from European integration, they signed EU association agreements that came into effect in 2016 under the Eastern Partnership framework.
However, the two states also differ in significant ways. Endemic corruption in Moldova has caused multiple political-financial scandals. In 2015 three banks embezzled $1bn – 15% of the country’s GDP – with the complicity of some of the political elite. Recently, Interpol discovered its Moldovan branch was blocking the extradition of international criminals in return for bribes to senior officials. In contrast, Georgia implemented sweeping administrative reforms following its 2003 ‘rose revolution’. Transparency International ranks Georgia as the least corrupt post-Soviet republic outside the Baltic states, with a probity level higher than that of (…)
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David Teurtrie
David Teurtrie is an associate professor at the Institut Catholique d’Études Supérieures (ICES), director of the Observatoire Français des BRICS and the author of Russie: Le retour de la puissance (Russia: the Return of Power), Dunod, Paris, 2024.
Jean-Luc Racine is emeritus director of research at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, senior researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris, and the author of Cachemire: au péril de la guerre (Autrement, 2002) and L’Inde et l’Asie (CNRS, 2009).
(1) He previously served 1990-3, and from 1997 until Pervez Musharraf’s coup in 1999.
(4) The participating countries are: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and the United Arab Emirates. Countries and organisations supporting the initiative include Australia, Canada, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the UK, the US, the EU, NATO and the UN.
(7) India and Pakistan have clashed several times since Kashmir acceded to India in 1947, on the decision of its maharajah. Since 1949, Kashmir has been divided into two territories under Pakistani administration, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, and one under Indian control, Jammu and Kashmir.
(8) The official value of trade in 2014 was $2.6bn. Counting trade via intermediary countries (United Arab Emirates, Singapore) could double this figure.