By Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor
An invitation to join the NATO alliance requires all 32 member states to agree and cannot be extended to a country – like Ukraine – that is at war.
Should the fighting in Ukraine cease, though, there would still be huge resistance from some countries – Germany, Italy and Hungary just to name a few – about offering Kyiv membership to the club given the risk of the conflict with Russia reigniting – a move that would then draw the entire alliance into direct war with Moscow.
This anxiety is why it already took a lot of diplomatic pressure by some of Ukraine’s strongest backers, including the UK, France, the Baltic states and Poland, to persuade all allies merely to sign up to a form of words stating that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to joining NATO.
However, experts have mused about a possible peace deal option that would see NATO offer membership to the government and control part of Ukraine, while Russia holds onto the land it’s already seized but without any international legitimacy or recognition.
Such a move would involve concessions by both sides – with Kyiv forced to accept temporarily the loss of territory and Moscow failing to achieve a core war aim of preventing the majority of Ukraine joining the Western alliance.
Even if Volodymyr Zelenskyy might be willing to countenance such an option, Vladimir Putin would have to be forced to feel as though he has no greater chance of success through military force to do the same.
Just as important is what NATO allies think – and given the risk of war with Moscow it is highly unlikely that all member states would sign up to such a plan without significant pressure by whichever nations might be in favour.
If those nations do not include the US then it is hard to imagine such a push having any chance of success.