Nobody can complain that President-elect Donald Trump isn’t following through on his core election pledges. Even before he takes office on January 20, he has announced plans for emergency action to impose initial tariff barriers on Mexico, Canada and China.

The concept of “emergency action” is key, as his close ally, Elon Musk, highlighted:

“The proposed tariffs “will be highly effective” in stopping illegal migration and drug trafficking”. 

EMERGENCY LEGISLATION IS KEY TO TRUMP’S PLAN FOR SUDDEN CHANGE

Donald Trump found it difficult to implement his agenda in his first term. His supporters have therefore prepared very carefully for the second term.

The Heritage Fund’s 922-page plan, ‘Project 2025, the Presidential Transition Project’, highlights the work that has been done. As AP reports, he has hired 3 key Project 2025 personnel for senior roles:

“Most notably, Trump has tapped Russell Vought for an encore as director of the Office of Management and Budget; Tom Homan, his former immigration chief, as “border czar;” and immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of policy.”

In the normal course of events, an incoming President would present his proposed legislation to Congress. Senators and Representatives would then debate the individual items, and decide whether to amend, reject or approve them.

But this would probably take months. And it seems Trump doesn’t want to wait that long, as he told TIME magazine earlier this year:

“Trump has said he’d only be a dictator on “day one” in order to close the border and expand oil drilling. He’s called for “one real rough, nasty” and “violent day” to crack down on crime in the U.S. He told TIME in April that he’d deploy the National Guard to round up millions of immigrants not authorized to be in the country “and, if necessary, I’d have to go a step further.” “

GLOBALISATION IS COMING TO A RAPID END

USA POPULATION SEGMENTS,MILLIONS, 1950 – 2030(F)

Trump’s tariff war confirms that the need for globalisation is coming to a rapid end. Most of us have, of course, only known the post-1985 world, when globalisation took off. It tapped into a growing need, as the chart for US population shows:

The Baby Boom meant there had been a surge in the number of people in the Wealth Creator 25-54 cohort since 1950

Their numbers rose by 2/3rds from 64m in 1950, to 107m by 1985. And they rose a further 17% to 125m by 2005

This powered a Super Cycle of demand, as these Boomers settled down and bought houses & cars etc for the first time

Their incomes were also rising as their careers progressed, so they could afford to buy what they wanted

Importantly, however, they weren’t having many babies. Falling fertility rates meant the number of Under-25s only rose by 13% from 92m in 1985 to 104m in 2005. And since then there has been no growth at all.

So we are now returning to the pre-1985 world, where most supplies will take place on a local-for-local basis.

LIFE EXPECTANCY HAS RISEN DUE TO VACCINES & HEALTHIER LIFESTYLES

Reported paralytic polio cases and deaths, UnitedStates, 1920 to 2019

The reported figures include both wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus infections that occurred endogenously and as imported cases.

At the same time, a revolution was taking place in healthcare. As the Our World in Data chart shows, the arrival of polio vaccines in 1952 meant the number of US cases collapsed from 58k/year in 1952 to just 122 in 1964.

Other medical advances, and healthier lifestyles, meant that Americans no longer died around pension age.

Increasing life expectancy means that the Perennials 55+ cohort have been the main source of US population growth since 2005.

As we’ve discussed before, the Perennials are usually lovely people, but they are a replacement economy. They are not having children, and they already own most of what they need.

So the need for globalisation to supplement local production has largely disappeared.

The pity is that policymakers didn’t wake up to this fact back in 2005, when it was already clear that the need for global supply chains had passed its “sell-by date”.

Now, as Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change seems to lie ahead.