Russians ‘Panic’ As Ukrainian Forces Fling 40 Cruise Missiles, Ballistic Missiles And Drones At Targets In Crimea

In a powerful coordinated strike on Friday, the Ukrainian military bombarded Russian bases in occupied Crimea with no fewer than 40 deep-strike munitions. “Russian channels are in panic as debris is hitting targets,” the Estonian analyst WarTranslated reported.

For all its mass and sophistication, it appears the raid was primarily a feint—one the Ukrainians hope will compel the Russians to divert additional air defenses from elsewhere along the 800-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.

In that way, the Ukrainian attack on Crimea could facilitate later Ukrainian attacks that aren’t feints.

Say, raids targeting Russian command posts and supply lines in Kursk Oblast in western Russia—where 60,000 Russian and North Korean troops are counterattacking 20,000 Ukrainian troops holding a 250-square-mile salient. Or targeting key Russian infrastructure in Donetsk Oblast, currently the locus of a powerful Russian offensive that kicked off a year ago.

For the Friday assault, the Ukrainian air force, intelligence directorate and other commands assembled one of the most diverse mixes of munitions for a single operation so far in the 33-month wider war.

According to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., they included British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles launched by air force Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, air force S-200 air-defense missiles converted into long-range surface-to-surface weapons, strike drones from the intelligence directorate as well as unidentified ballistic missiles, presumably fired by the army.

The mix of weapons—some coming in high and fast, others coming in low and slow—surely complicated Russia’s efforts to defeat the attack. “Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear,” ISW noted.

The Kremlin claimed Russian air defenses intercepted 25 drones. If that’s true, more than a dozen missiles or drones still got through.

Some of the Ukrainian weapons reportedly barreled toward Belbek air base, the target of repeated strikes since February 2022. Others may have struck the Nakhimov Naval Academy. Smoke was visible rising from the school.

At first blush, it might seem wasteful for the Ukrainians to hurl so many of their best deep-strike weapons against targets in Crimea. The peninsula and the whole southern front have been quiet in the year since the fighting shifted east and north.

But the Friday raid was apparently part of a greater plan. “Ukrainian defense forces strikes on enemy military facilities in occupied Crimea are compelling the enemy to allocate additional air-defense assets to the area,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies surmised.

The redeployment of air defenses to Crimea, combined with escalating Ukrainian attacks on the Russian air force’s best S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries, could create gaps in air-defense coverage—gaps the Ukrainians could exploit in a virtuous cycle for the Ukrainian campaign against Russian supply and command networks.

This is especially important for the Ukrainian force in Kursk, which is fighting hard to hold off a much larger Russian and North Korean force. The Ukrainian air force and army have been trying to make an unfair fight more fair by blowing up supply depots and headquarters in and around the oblast.

Friday’s deep strike in the south could afford them more opportunities to pluck at these critical targets in the north.

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