A potential workaround would be to block new joint projects with Rosatom, forcing a long-term shift away from Russia’s nuclear industry. Earlier this month, two diplomats with knowledge of the backroom talks being held ahead of the Polish presidency told POLITICO the compromise was seen as a way to tighten the noose without facing a veto from Hungary.
“Russia is pooling efforts to become an indispensable part of the nuclear sector, too, as they did before with oil and gas,” one envoy said. However, even those loose restrictions could face opposition from Hungary.
Gas gambit
The return of Donald Trump to the White House also creates new challenges and opportunities for the Poles. While Trump has vowed to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine, he has also pledged to boost America’s exports of LNG to Europe, with “drill, baby, drill” becoming a campaign rallying cry.
In a move intended to avoid a trade war with Washington, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the EU could look to Trump’s administration to help end its dependency on Moscow for gas.
“Why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices? It’s something where we can get into a discussion, also [where] our trade deficit is concerned,” she said at a summit in Budapest last month.
While specific restrictions on imports of LNG for domestic use have never been proposed and would immediately be vetoed by Hungary, increasing United States gas extraction could create a market-based incentive to end purchases from Moscow.
And, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is relying on European fossil fuel purchases to fund his war on Ukraine, that could be bad news.
Suzanne Lynch and Zia Weise contributed reporting from Baku, Azerbaijan.