South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pointed the finger at North Korea and the opposition in his surprise declaration of martial law during an unannounced television address to his country on Tuesday night, December 3.
Yoon told South Koreans martial law was necessary to “safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements,” taking aim at the Democratic Party, his liberal opposition.
Han Dong-hoon, leader of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, called the president’s declaration of martial law “wrong” and pledged to “stop it with the people” as protestors took to the streets. Parliament voted against martial law in a late night session.
The under-pressure president has struggled to deliver on his platform. His approval rating is its lowest since his inauguration and his party suffered a major loss in parliamentary elections to those he now accuses of harboring pro-North Korean sympathies.
With the shock declaration of martial law, and Yoon’s references to Kim Jong Un‘s North Korea, Newsweek asked experts how Pyongyang would respond. This is what they said.
Left, South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol speaks during the declaration of emergency martial law at the Presidential Office on December 3, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea. Right, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un speaks…
Left, South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol speaks during the declaration of emergency martial law at the Presidential Office on December 3, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea. Right, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un speaks during a press conference, June 19, 2024, in Pyongyang, North Korea.
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South Korean Presidential Office/Getty Images/
Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Distinguished Professor Emeritus; Director Emeritus, Korea-Pacific Program; Research Director, Global Governance, UC San Diego
The declaration states that the measure was designed to counter “North Korean communist forces.”
But I have certainly not seen any evidence of forced movements on the North Korean side, meaning that this is McCarthyism: An identification of the opposition as an anti-state pro-North Korean force.
The likely North Korean reaction will be that the illegal clique in the South is arrogating power to itself, perhaps justifying Kim Jong Un’s recent decisions to treat the South as an enemy country; that is likely the framework for how North Korea will respond.
Gi-Wook Shin, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, Director, Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
I am sure North Korea will be watching the situation very closely and may issue a statement condemning the martial law.
Other than that, I don’t think they will take any immediate action. Anyway, I don’t think this will last for long—it will face national resistance, even within the military.
George A. Lopez, Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame; Former Member of UN Panel of Experts for Sanctions on North Korea
Because this action by Yoon was unforeseen, we may not have an instant reaction from Kim Jong Un. If the martial law and emerging chaos in the South increases beyond today, expect Kim Jong-un to deny it has operatives in the South that sparked this action.
Rather, Kim will claim martial law as evidence that Yoon is paranoid, taking his hostility to the North to this new level, and DPRK will declare its armed forces on war alert.
If ROK is still under martial law as the days go on, expect Kim to emphasize this ‘threat’ to the peninsula indicates the corruption and dysfunction of so-called democracy.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin may issue a statement of solidarity with DPRK as their ally faces these threats. A short-range missile test by the North is more likely within a week, if martial law continues.
Marcus Noland, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, East-West Center; Executive Vice President and Director of Studies, Peterson Institute for International Economics
North Korea has its hands full in Ukraine. It will crank up its overt propaganda operations and covertly encourage its operatives and fellow travelers in the South to make noise.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Professor of International Relations, King’s College London; KF-VUB Korea Chair, Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
In my opinion, North Korea will criticize President Yoon and will also suggest that South Korea is unstable. But I don’t think that it can cover this development in much depth given the nature of its own regime.
David A. Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
While I imagine that Kim Jong Un is rubbing his hands with glee at South Korea descending into political chaos, he is not in a good position to respond to it.
He has been doing his best to cut off whatever tenuous connections with the South remained and is no doubt fully occupied with concerns of his own.
I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea’s political system, but not much else.
Jenny Town, Director, Korea Program and 38 North, and Senior Fellow, Stimson Center
To be honest, North Korea may comment on the clear abuse of power by Yoon, especially given the clear and decisive opposition by the national assembly to the decision.
But if this renews calls for Yoon’s impeachment, they will likely stay silent on the matter, letting it play out as it will.
While there isn’t a lot of precedent for this, Pyongyang was notably silent during the impeachment process for Park Geun-hye. I would expect something similar this time around.