Syria civil war live: rebels advance on Homs

But there is no such thing as a settled outcome in the modern Middle East. Richard Spencer explains what is happening and why.

• Read in full: Who are the HTS rebels and what is happening in Syria?

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, has said the rebel offensive poses a threat to the whole Middle East and Iran would continue to support Syria “with whatever is needed”.

“If Syria becomes a safe place for terrorists with the return of Isis and other terrorist groups, it will create a great threat to the region,” he said.

His Iraqi counterpart, Fuad Hussein, said that his country should prepare for terrorist attacks as violence intensifies in Syria. “We stress the need to protect Iraqi territory and borders and distance Iraq from any terrorist attacks,” he said. “All Iraqi security forces are on high alert.”

Earlier, meeting his Syrian and Iranian counterparts, Hussein expressed “deep concern” over the anti Assad offensive. The risk of domestic terrorism may also rise, he said.

At least three people have been killed in fighting between government forces and local militia in Suwayda, the capital of Syria’s southernmost province. Anti-government forces have seized the prison and central police office.

Two hours to the south of Damascus and near the Jordanian border, the attack represents a challenge to Assad’s forces in the heart of government-controlled territory. It was reportedly orchestrated by Druze rebels, a religious sect only loosely aligned with Kurdish and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels operating in the north.

A Syrian rebel commander, Lieutenant Colonel Hasan Abdul Ghani, is urging senior officers in Assad’s military to defect. In social media videos he said his forces were “en route to Damascus” and encouraged Syrian army soldiers to join them.

The fall of Hama appears to have severely demoralised the regime’s supporters. The army rallied to defend the city and Assad ordered a 50 per cent pay rise to officers as an incentive to fight.

Rebel fighters claim to have taken Brigade 52, a major government military base which was allegedly involved in the shelling of civilians in Daraa between 2012 and 2015. Video showed rebels in combat with government forces around the nearby town of al-Hirak.

A new group of rebels, Southern Operations Room, announced itself in a statement sent to CNN, declaring its goal was “reaching Damascus” and urging government forces to “defect from the Assad regime’s criminal gang”. The group claimed its fighters had “successfully liberated Brigade 52 in eastern Daraa after battles with regime forces stationed there”.

The southern rebel movement began in 2012 with the formation of the Free Syrian Army in Daraa. At one point they took Daraa city but were unable to hold it.

Ukraine has again rejected allegations that its soldiers are fighting in Syria, but said that the collapse of a Russian ally shows that Moscow cannot fight on two fronts.

Heorhii Tykhyi, Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesman, said: “Russia’s significant losses in Ukraine have led Moscow to withdraw the majority of its troops and equipment from Syria, leaving its ally … without the necessary support.”

A rebel spokesman said that most of the southern province of Daraa had fallen to the rebels apart from the city of Daraa, where soldiers and militiamen are loyal to the regime.

US-backed Syrian Kurd forces have seized the city of Deir ez-Zor in the east of the country and, in a further blow to the regime, the Syrian Defence Forces have seized the Albu Kamal border crossing with Iraq, Reuters reports.

Syrian regime forces are withdrawing from more in Deir ez-Zor province, according to the Middle East Monitor website. Local sources claim that the regime intends to redeploy troops to the Damascus area.

The foreign ministers of Iran, Iraq and Syria — close allies — gathered in Baghdad today to consult on the rapidly changing war. Fuad Hussein, the Iraqi foreign minister, expressed “deep concern”.

Bassam Sabbagh, of Syria, said the current developments may pose “a serious threat to the security of the region as a whole”.

Tomorrow, the foreign ministers of Turkey, which backs some of the rebels, and Assad’s allies Iran and Russia will meet in Doha on Saturday as part of the Astana process, established to seek a political solution to the 13-year old Syrian civil war.

Israel has said it is reinforcing its military forces near the border with Syria, in the contested Golan Heights.

In a video released by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), troops are seen fortifying a barrier along the frontier. “The IDF is following the events and is prepared for any scenario in attack and defence,” the military said, adding that it “will not allow a threat near Israel’s border, and will work to thwart any threat to the citizens of the state of Israel”.

Israel has only recently reached a ceasefire in Lebanon with Hezbollah, who are allies of the Assad regime along with their main sponsors, Iran.

President Erdogan of Turkey said on Friday that he hoped Syrian rebels would continue their advances but expressed some reservations about the jihadist ideology of some of the rebels.

“The target is Damascus,” he said. “I would say we hope for this advance to continue without any issues. However, while this resistance there with terrorist organisations is continuing, we had made a call to Assad.”

Erdogan had made approaches to the Syrian leader this year to meet and normalise ties after more than a decade of animosity.

• Read more: Assault on Aleppo puts Erdogan one step closer to Damascus dream

Images of insurgent fighters riding motorbikes and in other vehicles have been geolocated to the outskirts of Homs, close to a military academy in the city.

Earlier on Friday the rebels took over the towns of Rastan and Talbiseh, putting them five kilometres (three miles) from Homs, and they appear to have now advanced closer, down the M5 motorway that runs from Aleppo all the way to Damascus.

Given its strategic importance, “the battle of Homs is the mother of all battles and will decide who will rule Syria”, said Rami Abdulrahman, the head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Russian embassy in Syria has advised Russian citizens to leave the country.

In a brief statement on Telegram, the embassy cited the “difficult military-political situation” and said Russians should “leave the country on commercial flights through existing airports”.

Russia has been a key military ally of President Assad’s regime in Syria in recent years. Russian airstrikes have been hitting areas held by Syrian opposition in the northwest of the country, and destroyed a bridge leading to Homs overnight, but that has so far failed to stop the rebel advance.

If the rebels do enter Homs, which was the site of a bloody siege in the early years of the Syrian civil war that broke out in 2011, it would be another setback in a week for President Assad. His army had quickly lost control of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, and Hama, which had never fallen to the rebels before.

Capturing Homs would secure a direct line to the capital Damascus and cut the main route to the coastal heartland of Assad’s Alawi sect.

• Read more: Syria’s civil war mapped

Syrian government forces have denied reports that they are retreating from Homs in the face of the rebel advance.

The war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the military had pulled its troops out from the city as opposition fighters reached its gates.

But the military denied that in a statement, while its allies in Iran and Hezbollah said they would be sending advisers and troops to hold the line. Rebels at the front lines could not immediately be reached due to problems with the communication network there.

Thousands of civilians fled the Syrian city of Homs on Friday as rebel forces continued to advance towards the capital, Damascus, along the main M5 motorway.

The rebels were just 1km from the outskirts of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor. The attack came just a day after they captured the city of Hama, to the north of Homs, for the first time since the start of civil war in 2011.

President Assad’s military, backed by Russian airstrikes, has failed to stop a lightning offensive by the jihadist-led forces that began last week with the capture of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city.