The long-predicted “Aleppo War” has begun, marking a significant escalation in Syria’s ongoing conflict since 2011. Selahattin Erdem, in his analysis for Yeni Özgür Politika, draws parallels to ISIS’s 2014 advance on Mosul, describing how Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syrian National Army (SNA) forces rapidly gained control over Aleppo. As these offensives extend towards Hama and other key areas, the expert warns of a broader war under control of superpowers aimed at reshaping Syria’s political structure.



A new phase in Syria’s conflict

Erdem, a prominent expert on Middle Eastern affairs, highlights the long-brewing anticipation of a significant assault in Syria, stating: “For months, political circles speculated about the likelihood of a shocking offensive. Although the exact perpetrator was not explicitly named, it was widely understood that HTS was the only force with the capacity to carry out such an operation.”

Further elaborating on the alliance between HTS and SNA, Erdem describes it as evidence of a “clear agreement and coordinated strategy” between the two factions. He adds, “It is plausible that this collaboration was formalised during NATO’s new Secretary General’s recent visit to Turkey, where discussions with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan likely played a pivotal role in shaping the plan.”

The players and their agendas

Erdem emphasises the external backers of HTS and SNA, highlighting the influence of powers like the UK, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the USA. HTS, originating from Al-Nusra Front, operates with British and Saudi support, while SNA remains a tool of Ankara’s AKP-MHP regime, with a singular focus on dismantling Kurdish influence in northern Syria. “This cooperation,” Erdem argues, “is not without tensions, and differing priorities could lead to future conflicts between HTS and SNA.”

Geopolitical objectives and regional implications

Erdem connects the timing of the Aleppo offensive to larger geopolitical strategies, such as the recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. He suggests that Syria is being prepared for a restructuring process, possibly into federated regions or fragmented states, designed to safeguard Israeli security and energy corridors. “The role of the Assad regime is clearly diminishing,” Erdem writes, “as global powers align to reshape Syria without their leadership.”

The Kurdish Question: central and unresolved

At the heart of the conflict lies the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). According to Erdem, SNA’s offensives focus on erasing Kurdish gains, targeting areas like Shahba (Şehba), Manbij (Minbîc), and Raqqa. However, Erdem highlights the resilience of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which defend not only Kurdish communities but also Arabs, Armenians, Syriacs, Circassians, and Turkmens. “The Kurdish question remains the core unresolved issue in Syria,” Erdem notes, “and any future arrangement will depend on its resolution.”

Towards a democratic resolution?

Despite the escalating violence, Erdem sees hope in a democratic confederation for Syria, advocating for a participatory and autonomous self-rule of a governance model that embraces all ethnic and cultural identities in harmony and coexistence. “This vision, inspired by Öcalan’s ideas, who is the Kurdish leader being jailed in solitary confinement detention in a prison island by the Turkish regime since 1999, offers a framework for plurality and diversity in unity,” Erdem concludes, urging Syrians to strengthen their self-defence and pursue a democratic resolution.