In July, Ukraine’s former foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, visited China in an effort to reset relations and find “common ground” with Beijing. While the government of President Xi Jinping has sought to pitch itself as a peace broker, it has simultaneously become Russia’s top trade partner, racing to fill the gap left by Western businesses.

Publicly, China insists it is neutral in the conflict and maintains “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected.” But it has also used Moscow’s catastrophic invasion to strengthen its hand in relations with the Kremlin, while cashing in on Russian consumers’ desire for goods in the wake of Western sanctions.

“This is why they are helping to keep Russia afloat,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

In separate comments to POLITICO, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur also cast doubt on the prospect of Beijing stepping in to help resolve the war in Ukraine.

“Even when somebody is thinking of that theoretically — practically I don’t see any possible options for that — that China will do something which is against Russian interests,” he said.