🚨🏴 NEW: Poll finds SNP/Greens on course for overall majority & support for independence at 54%
by 1DarkStarryNight
🚨🏴 NEW: Poll finds SNP/Greens on course for overall majority & support for independence at 54%
by 1DarkStarryNight
14 comments
**Indyref voting intention:**
🏴 Yes: 54%
🇬🇧 No: 46%
This is the highest “Yes” has polled in four years.
**Holyrood voting intention:**
*Constituency:*
💛 SNP: 37% (+4)
❤️ LAB: 21% (-4)
💙 CON: 14% (-1)
💜 RFM: 12% (+1)
🧡 LDM: 10% (-)
💚 GRN: 5% (-)
This is the lowest Labour has polled in three years (Holyrood VI).
*List:*
💛 SNP: 32% (+3)
❤️ LAB: 18% (-4)
💙 CON: 16% (+2)
💜 RFM: 12% (+1)
🧡 LDM: 10% (-)
💚 GRN: 8% (+1)
🩵 ALBA: 5% (+2)
**Seat Projection**
💛 SNP: 59
❤️ LAB: 20
💙 CON: 19
💜 RFM: 13
🧡 LDM: 11
💚 GRN: 7
Pro-independence majority of 3.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/john-swinney-on-course-for-pro-independence-majority-after-budget-9vcpvjwg7
A link to the archive.is capture of the times article would be better than a screenshot of a tweet.
Also flashing-beacon black-flag emoji in title probably isn’t rendering the way you think it does.
This is a possible side effect of reform splitting the tory vote.
But it’s also roughly a 10% drop in support for the snp in both constancy and list vote and no rise foe the greens in the list.
Curtace’s model for responding to immediate polls typically uses a uniform poll swing, if however, the polling follows the pattern in recent by-elections (where reform also took votes specifically from the snp and labour) predicting the constituency seats is going to be very, very difficult.
If the budget is likely to give a reprieve to indy parties that is another reason for unionist parties to vote it down.
>John Swinney is on course to command a pro-independence majority in Holyrood and lead the SNP into a third decade in power after a popular debut budget as first minister, according to a new poll.
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>In a significant blow to Scottish Labour, the first survey carried out since the Scottish government’s tax and spend plans were announced has seen the party’s support drop to its lowest level in three years.
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>Backing for independence has also risen to 54 per cent when undecided voters are excluded, the highest level for more than four years.
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>After the budget, support for the SNP increased by four points to 37 per cent for constituency votes and by three points to 32 per cent on the regional list since the last poll in August.
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>Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and Strathclyde University professor, projected this would mean the nationalists would return 59 MSPs, which would almost certainly see the party continue in power beyond the 20-year mark. The SNP runs a minority administration at present with 62 MSPs.
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>“The finger of blame for Labour’s predicament,” Curtice said, “points to 10 Downing Street.” He added: “Far from easing Anas Sarwar’s path to Bute House, Labour’s victory in July has seemingly made his task harder.”
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>Swinney has also seen a bump in his popularity by four points to minus 7, according to the Norstat poll for The Sunday Times.
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>This makes him the least unpopular politician in Scotland, with every leader’s rating in negative territory.
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>Swinney’s budget was explicitly political and effectively fired the starting gun on the SNP’s campaign for the 2026 Holyrood election.
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>It attempted to wrongfoot Labour on the party’s core platforms by pledging to increase spending on benefits including the winter fuel payment and mitigating the two-child benefit cap.
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>Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, has come under significant pressure from within his party and from anti-poverty campaigners to scrap the benefits cap.
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>He has also come in for criticism for his decision to end the universality of the winter fuel payment and Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, had pledged to at least partially reverse the decision.
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>The poll found that Starmer’s popularity had again fallen, by four points, to minus 32. It was minus 5 in August. Sarwar’s rating remained at minus 17.
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>In a continuation of the trend that followed the UK budget, the new research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 21 per cent, a drop of two points.
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>Backing for the party on the more proportional regional list fell by four points to 18 per cent, giving Scottish Labour its worst Holyrood ratings in both votes since November 2021 and the lockdown party scandals at Westminster that boosted its popularity.
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>The trend in council by-elections contrasts with recent national polls. Despite the SNP winning Stirling East, the swing in the seat was towards Labour and the nationalists had lost the previous 19 local by-elections.
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>Nigel Farage’s Reform UK polled 14 per cent in the Stirling by-election with activists from the SNP and Labour both acknowledging that the right-wing populist party was eating into their votes.
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>In a continuing trend across multiple national polls, Reform again performed strongly in the Norstat survey, adding one point in constituencies and on the list to win the support of 12 per cent in both.
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>This means Reform out-polled both the Greens (5 per cent in constituencies and 8 per cent on the list) and the Liberal Democrats (10 per cent in both constituencies and on the list).
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>The Scottish Conservatives saw support fall by one point in constituencies to 14 per cent but increase by two points to 16 per cent on the regional list.
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>Alba, the party formed by Alex Salmond, the former first minister who died in October, saw support increase by two points to 5 per cent.
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>According to Curtice’s analysis, those results would leave the SNP with 59 MSPs, while Labour would return 20, the Conservatives 19, Reform 13, Lib Dems 11 and Greens seven.
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>This would give the SNP and Greens a combined 66 seats, meaning there would be a pro-independence majority of three.
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>The two parties remain more distant than before the 2021 Holyrood election with the Greens still nursing wounds after being sacked from government by Humza Yousaf.
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>Voters were lukewarm when asked about the effect of Swinney’s budget on them and their household, with 44 per cent saying it would make little difference. Twenty-five per cent said it would leave them better off, while 21 per cent said they would be worse off and 10 per cent were unsure.
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>However, when asked about the impact on Scotland as a whole, 39 per cent said the country would be better off, 24 per cent said worse off, 28 per cent said there would be no difference and 9 per cent were unsure.
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>There was also majority support for key budget measures including increasing NHS funding (77 per cent), giving pensioners at least £100 as a winter fuel payment from next year (73 per cent), increasing the housing budget to counter previous cuts (60 per cent) and raising the thresholds for the basic and intermediate tax rates by 3.5 per cent (53 per cent).
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>Ministers have been criticised for a lack of ambition in their NHS improvement goals, particularly over waiting times where a previously missed target has simply been restated but pushed back by two years.
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>However, the flagship policy of ending the two-child benefit cap, which prevents parents from claiming universal credit or child tax credit for a third child, with a few exemptions, was more divisive.
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>A plurality of people (38 per cent) supported it with 27 per cent opposed, 21 per cent saying they were neutral and 13 per cent unsure.
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>The reintroduction of free bus travel for asylum seekers was unpopular, being backed by only 25 per cent of people, with 48 per cent opposed and the rest neutral or undecided.
Good stuff.
Compared to 2021 -5 seats for the SNP; -2 for Labour^1; -12 for Conservatives; -1 Green; +6 Libs; +13 Reform.
Unlike other polls, this one returns a semi-believable majority amongst constitutional lines. Like other polls, it gets more complicated the more you think about it: the SNP and Greens might have a majority between them, but the SNP Centre and left does not; and the SNP right are less committed to party discipline than they were before 2016.
^1 Sarwar has never gained Labour MSPs.
Can’t see it really
Hold on this isn’t allowed. Pro SNP posts were outlawed around the time the great war of reddit API occurred the other hear.
It was fairly inevitable (as much as things can be in politics) that the SNP would recover some ground if/when the ship was steadied and the shine came off Labour winning the Westminster election. The fact independence support held up when the SNP collapsed made that fairly clear.
Didn’t expect it quite so soon though. I’m quite surprised Labor tanked in the polls quite as quickly as they did. Still, a year and a half till Holyrood, that’s a long time in politics.
The best thing to do if they want independence is keep it on the back burner, but mentioned now and again, and once we get another Tory or Reform shitshow, hammer it home until we get another vote.
I don’t think Scotland will put up with another right wing London government.
Made an inward bet with myself who the original poster would be, before I opened the thread.
I won.
It’s laughably predictable.
John Swinney as leader will only result in more poor election results for the SNP.
If the SNP want to turn the party and results round, then the old guard needs to stand aside.
People are bad at economics and benefits of a system at scale. It’ll be brexit 2.0.
I think they have more pressing issues to deal with before even thinking about independence. But then again, the NHS, education and everything else can go to shit whilst we are the highest taxed of the 4 nations and the government write papers on there being 23 genders. What an absolute joke of a government. Abysmal.
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