What is the real toll of natural and climate disasters? Science has staggering new answers • New research challenges us to look beyond the event to the devastating long-term impacts. Governments must take note

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1. Excerpt:

   >A [new paper in Nature magazine](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5) develops a methodology to estimate the overall effect of individual tropical cyclones (ie hurricanes and tropical storms) on all causes of mortality across all populations within the US. The authors analysed how mortality rates within a state changed for 20 years after the state was hit by a natural disaster, and took mortality data from 1950 to 2015 to form a longer-term picture.

   >Their main finding is that a large number of premature deaths in the US could be traced back to tropical cyclone events: people who died earlier than would have been expected in the absence of a natural disaster. For example, looking at the direct toll of tropical cyclones shows that each one killed 24 individuals on average. But expanding this to indirect deaths takes the toll to 7,170-11,430 for each event on average. These indirect early deaths are relatively higher in those under the age of 44 and in Black populations.

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