Despite success in the last general election, Anas Sarwar’s party is losing voters to both the SNP and Reform UK — but John Swinney shouldn’t celebrate yet

by backupJM

5 comments

  1. >The high hopes that Labour’s general election success in July would pave the way for Anas Sarwar to become first minister in May 2026 have rapidly evaporated. The latest Norstat poll suggests the party’s support has fallen to its lowest level since shortly before the first partygate stories emerged in Westminster just over three years ago. However, despite a largely favourable reaction to last week’s Scottish budget, John Swinney has plenty to do to ensure there is still a pro-independence majority at Holyrood after the 2026 election.

    >Just 21 per cent of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election.

    >The party is being squeezed at both ends of the political spectrum. At 12 per cent, the proportion of those who voted Labour in July who now say they would vote SNP is double the equivalent figure in August. Yet at the same time no less than 13 per cent of the Labour’s July vote has now switched to Reform UK, up from just 5 per cent in August. Consequently, the party’s support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence.

    >The finger of blame for the Scottish Labour’s predicament points to 10 Downing Street. In August Sir Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stood at -5; while 33 per cent believed he was doing a bad job, 28 per cent reckoned he was doing a good one. Now, his net rating stands at -32. True, Sarwar’s score has also slipped — from -8 in August to -17 now — but the decline has not been as steep as that for his UK counterpart. Far from easing Sarwar’s path to Bute House, Labour’s victory in July has seemingly made his task harder.

    >Not that Swinney is especially popular. At -7 his net approval rating is only slightly up on the equivalent figure of -11 in August. The SNP has only made minimal progress in persuading those who back independence to return to the fold — just 63 per cent of those who would currently vote Yes are inclined to vote SNP on the Holyrood constituency ballot, well down on the proportion in 2021. But the first minister does at least seem to have steadied his party’s previously troubled ship.

    >The budget may well have helped in that endeavour. As many as 39 per cent believe it will have a positive impact on Scotland, while only 24 per cent take the opposite view. Even those who voted Labour — 34 per cent positive, 32 per cent negative — gave it a relatively good review. However, clever politics though it might have seemed, the proposed abolition of the two-child cap is one of the less popular measures, backed by 38 per cent but opposed by 25 per cent, with those who voted Labour in July evenly divided on its merits. Nevertheless, expect Swinney to take every advantage he can of divisions between Westminster and Holyrood within Labour’s ranks in the coming months.

    Interesting breakdown of the recent poll.

  2. They got the protest vote previously reserved for the SNP in recent years.

    Folk up here fed up with both governments hence jumping ship to Labour and the Lib Dems in the last election.

    The next Scottish and general elections are gonna be near impossible to call. I know we’re years of the next GE but if current trends keep up it’s gonna be the hungest of hung parliaments.

  3. I just want a parliament where there’s no majority or near majority. I’ll certainly be glad to see the back of the current cohort of SNP msps, but I don’t think I’d want a labour majority.

  4. I’d quite like to give a Scottish Labour/Lib Dem Government a go. I think the Scottish Lib Dem’s would restrain the more nasty neoliberal aspects of New Labour.

  5. It’ll be impossible since there is no party called Scottish Labour.

    Their entire existence is just a media lie.

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