Israel’s cease-fire with Hezbollah: What does it mean for Hamas?

For well over a year, Israeli forces and Hamas militants have been engaged in a brutal, totalizing conflict. This war has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead, huge swaths of the Gaza Strip reduced to rubble and Israeli society paralyzed over the fate of the more than 100 hostages being held in Hamas captivity. At the same time, Israel has waged a separate war against Hezbollah, bombing suspected militant sites across Lebanon in response to months of rocket bombardments on Israel’s north. Although distinct in both antecedents and aims, the two fronts were, for a time, taken as a sign that a broader regional war was not merely possible but already underway.

Those fears were quieted somewhat late last month, when Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S.-French brokered ceasefire. While not absolute, it is a move that has largely succeeded in reducing hostilities between the two adversaries. As a result, the fragile detente has refocused attention back on the Gaza Strip, where a diminished Hamas remains a potent force.

Is Hamas more isolated now?

Hamas is “feeling the pressure” stemming from Hezbollah’s ceasefire agreement, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” Hezbollah has been “one of [Hamas’] main partners in crime” and the truce undercuts their belief that the Lebanese militia would be “with them till the end.” The Palestinian group had long hoped a “wider war in the Middle East would help deliver the organization a victory in its war with Israel,” The New York Times said. But the Hezbollah ceasefire “left that strategy in tatters” and potentially removed “Hamas’ most important ally from the fight.”

Crucially, both organizations are participants in “what Israel has come to see as a seven-front war,” in which “Iran has backed an array of groups” including Hamas, Hezbollah and others, said Foundation for the Defense of Democracies adjunct fellow Seth Frantzman at The National Interest. The ceasefire “signals a shift in the attitude of both militias’ Iranian backers,” said Charles Hollis, a former British diplomat to Iran, to NBC News. “The Iranians aren’t going to have nearly as much ability to resupply their proxies because they’re having to shore up their own domestic defense.”

Could an Israel-Hamas ceasefire be next?

Hamas leadership had initially “hoped the expansion of the war into Lebanon would pressure Israel to reach a comprehensive ceasefire,” Reuters said. That Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire independently represents a “blow” to the Palestinian group, given Hezbollah’s previous insistence that it “would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends.” Among Palestinians, there are fears that the ceasefire means Israel will “double down on the enclave now that its forces will be freed up from the fighting against Hezbollah,” Al Jazeera said.

To that end, while Hamas has expressed hopes that “any deal with Hezbollah would lead to the end of hostilities” between it and Israel, the group has “not indicated that it has shifted from previous negotiating positions” such as a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for any further hostage releases, NBC said.

Still, that does not mean Hamas is willing to publicly denounce the ceasefire agreement either. “Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome,” Hamas political wing member Osama Hamdan said in an interview with Hezbollah-allied broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, according to The Times of Israel. “Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices.”