“All Swinney must do to retain power is sit tight. Let Labour keep doing what it’s doing, and try to avoid more idiotic events. If Swinney does that, support for independence will stay buoyantly above 50% and he’ll get over the line come 2026. That will be when the real fun and games start”
by 1DarkStarryNight
21 comments
> Sir Keir Starmer’s Christmas present to John Swinney is the pervading sense of hopelessness among the centre ground of Scottish voters. The new Labour government has taught Middle Scotland that Westminster will never offer real change – for that was what Starmer promised, wasn’t it?
> The strength of Starmer’s majority initially knocked the brains from everyone. After reducing the SNP to a nub at Westminster, it seemed Labour had remaindered Swinney, leaving him to care-take a dying government which Anas Sarwar would eventually replace at Holyrood.
> Wrong. Not only do polls indicate Swinney leading the SNP into its fifth term of government, but support for independence is at its highest for years. The Yes vote stands at 54%. Support for Labour is at its lowest in three years.
> Extrapolating latest polls gives the SNP 59 MSPs at the next Holyrood election, Labour 20, Tories 19, Reform 13, LibDems 11 and Greens seven. That secures an independence majority in Holyrood.
> Swinney is the least unpopular politician in Scotland – hardly a great boast, but it’s certainly better than the others.
> The SNP thought they were dead. Labour thought they were dead. The media – myself included – thought they were dead. We’ve all been schooled in the old ways of politics.
> Starmer’s super-majority, everyone believed, would guarantee reserves of political support lasting well into 2026, securing Holyrood for Labour.
> But that’s 20th century thinking. Politics changes fast now. Starmer’s support is shallow. He was immediately mired in absurd scandals of elitist greed.
> His government launched hurting those perceived to be amongst the weakest in society – pensioners – and seemed happy to continue with the worst of Tory policy, the two-child benefit cap.
> **Starmer hasn’t presented a vision or storyline to the people in which we can believe. We feel we’re being run by a middle manager in an out-of-town call centre who cares nothing for us as human beings, but only what his computer read-out says.**
> Now, Swinney may share much of Starmer’s managerialism, but what the howling unionist critics forget is this: the SNP are not just the government of Scotland, but from a Scottish perspective also the official opposition to whatever government sits in Westminster.
> Moderate Yes voters, like myself, have always said the SNP needs two-tracks on which to run towards independence: acting as the soul which Westminster lacks, and governing to the very best of its ability to show floating voters that independence is valid.
> Swinney has proved himself when it comes to the former – indeed the SNP always proves itself when it comes to the former. It is, at heart, an egalitarian socially democratic party.
> However, when it comes to the latter – governing well – one of the SNP’s most glaring flaws has consistently been to talk the talk on good, progressive policy, but to seldom walk the walk. Or if ministers attempt walking the walk, to trip over their own clown shoes in the process.
> **The recent budget is an almost perfect expression of what keeps the SNP alive. It’s big selling points were mitigating Westminster cruelty regarding the winter fuel payment and two-child benefit cap.**
> So tick – the SNP fulfils its core mission: showing the soul Westminster requires. Was it a great budget? No. It lacked ambition and only tinkered around the edges of addressing inequality.
> But, again, in the current climate, that matters. Stepping in the right direction, even slowly, is preferable to standing still or going backwards, as Starmer is perceived to have done.
> **As long as Starmer continues upon the path he’s on – eyes fixed firmly on appealing to rightwing voters and the rightwing press – then things can only get better for the SNP.**
> It can even continue along its amateurish and failed path in terms of governing. Is that good for Scotland? No, but it’s a political truth.
> Without Westminster folly and failure, the SNP would be nowhere. Today in Scotland, people want change both at, and from, Westminster. That’s not happening, so the SNP becomes the only alternative – even if it’s Scotland’s incumbent government.
> That seems crazy – and is to some degree – but it’s also true. That’s how Scottish politics works. Unionists will achieve nothing until they grasp that.
> Sarwar, though, knows this truth in his bones. That’s why you’ll read headlines like ‘Winter fuel payment: Scottish Labour launches bid to force SNP to bring back universal entitlement’, or ‘Scottish Labour leader calls on Starmer to scrap ‘wrong’ two-child benefit cap’.
> **Sarwar understands that when Westminster seems cruel, the SNP benefits. But his strategy is absurd. Who – except the dumbest, and most partisan – would vote for Sarwar to mitigate Starmer? It’s just stupid – and Scottish voters aren’t stupid.**
> **Currently, Starmer could promise sweeping constitutional change, federalism that’s independence in all but name, and it’s doubtful he’d dent SNP support.**
> **Here’s the other great truth of Scottish politics: independence is by its very nature disruptive, anti-establishment, and anti-status quo. If the status quo is rotten – and it is – then what else is on offer?**
> If Scots voted at the last election hoping Starmer offered changed, but then quickly saw that it was all phoney, then where is left to turn if you’re left or centre-left?
> Meanwhile, what’s Labour’s latest idea? The funereal Pat McFadden wants to turn the state into a ‘start-up’. Do they think this stuff inspires us?
> We want the state to be the state – for ministers to roll up their sleeves and make our lives better. We don’t want Google as government.
> Reform rises because it offers radical change – radical and hateful change in the eyes of many, but change nonetheless.
> All Swinney must do to retain power is sit tight. Let Labour keep doing what it’s doing, and try – for pity’s sake – to avoid more idiotic events like Michael Matheson’s iPad or Stephen Flynn jockeying to unseat colleagues.
> If Swinney does that, support for independence will stay buoyantly above 50%, and he’ll get over the line come 2026. That will be when the real fun and games start.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/24781511.unionists-will-never-understand-secret-snps-success/
Just around the corner. Once all of the old people die.
If Labour continues with neoliberalism and doesn’t get the growth they’ve bet the farm on then they could easily let some form of Reform/Tory pact Farage government into power. At that point Scotland will be better off out of the union. As if Brexit hasn’t been damaging enough.
The real fun and games of living in the poor house and standing in the breadline because the SNP is shite at maths.
Can’t wait.
This is the same guy who FOUR days ago wrote an article saying the SNP had ‘given up’ on Independence
[https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/24777880.snp-given-independence-will-torch-bearers-now/](https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/24777880.snp-given-independence-will-torch-bearers-now/)
So unionists cant believe that however bad the SNP is the cronies in Westminster are way worse.
As someone who escaped England, let me enlighten you, everything is worse in England, Scotland has honest stats, thats its problem, everything else.. So different.
SNP might be the largest party, but the important points for me are:
– SNP look set to lose a lot of seats compared to their current tally
– Will they have another party big enough to vote through their budgets? It’s currently looking unlikely. Greens aren’t doing great, and they seem the only likely bedfellows (certainly in terms of independence).
Labour might be tanking polls, but that is (in my opinion) off the back of media spin dragging them down.
People would be more open to support their policies if papers spent less time showing crying farmers in Barbour jackets or penniless pensioners going to the country club to stay warm.
Labour seems to have no decent PR.
Yes. Please be complacent.
The only thing changing in 2026 is the leadership.
John is out and Steven Flynn is taking over.
The problem with Scottish election is that the complex voting system could through up surprises. If SNP lose Central Scotland constituency seats but fail to gain regional seats if a two votes SNP campaign fails, then they will lose big. Similar to Scottish Labour if they can’t gain constituencies.
Reform are polling well at the moment, but they’ll need a Scottish figure head to lead this campaign and could be damaged if they pick the wrong person. Also Nigel Farage does seem to have a habit of falling out with people so who knows if he’ll still be around by 2026.
Tories seem destined to fall into third place regardless. Lib Dem’s may do better and get back to their historic position of 4th.
To be honest a few of my pals who didn’t support independence or were on the fence about it felt that all we needed was a labour government and that was the real issue however now they feel like labour makes no difference so they’ve warmed to the idea, were in our 30’s no so we haven’t had a labour government since we were teenagers and they’ve realised nothing really changes.
Many soft Unionists in Scotland have givent the Union a final punt by voting Labour, what option do they have left if even Labour can’t deliver the goods for Scotland under the current constitutional settlement?
Scottish Labour have missed a massive fucking trick by allowing their MPs to fall in line behind a Westminster whip on things like the Winter Fuel Payment and Two Child Cap. Shows even after 17 years out of the Scottish Government, Scottish Labour haven’t learned a damn thing.
atleast if it’s late next year i’ll be able to vote
If they want to retain power, they need to improve public services and govern well. Sitting back and letting the opposition trip up is not a winning strategy for an incumbent.
2026 is relatively far away, a lot could happen by then. Labour could very well improve on their performance.
Imagine Nigel Far Radge as PM
Never interrupt your opponent when they’re making a royal arse of it.
Very true, I have no idea how they are so popular
“All” is doing a hell of a lot of lifting here. It ignores the drop in the SNP’s vote share since 2016 which would put them in largest party territory but really needing a partner to stay in government.
Minority government is possible, but there are a lot of moving parts that mean it’s just that. Possible.
Scotland pre independence “wah it’s Westminsters fault, wah”
Scotland post independence “wah it’s Holyroods fault, wah”
Lets not forget that the SNP campaigned vigorously against Brexit: Something that Labour didn’t do despite telling us that a ‘No’ vote for independence would be a vote to stay in the EU.
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