Conceptual illustration of the advancement of AI, showing humanity creating general AI, which in … [+] turn creates super AI. General AI, also known as strong AI, refers to AI that is designed to perform any intellectual task that a human can do. Super AI refers to AI that is capable of surpassing human intelligence in all areas. Super AI would be capable of solving complex problems that are beyond human capabilities and would be able to learn and adapt at a rate that far exceeds human intelligence. These are both hypothetical forms of AI that are not yet possible to achieve

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In 1956, a group of pioneering minds gathered at Dartmouth College to define what we now call artificial intelligence (AI). Even in the early 1990s when colleagues and I were working for early-stage expert systems software companies, the notion that machines could mimic human intelligence was an audacious one. Today, AI drives businesses, automates processes, creates content, and personalizes experiences in every industry. It aids and abets more economic activity than we “ignorant savages” (as one of the founding fathers of AI, Marvin Minsky, referred to our coterie) could have ever imagined. Admittedly, the journey is still early—a journey that may take us from narrow AI to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and ultimately to artificial superintelligence (ASI).

As business and technology leaders, it’s crucial to understand what’s coming: where AI is headed, how far off AGI and ASI might be, and what opportunities and risks lie ahead. To ignore this evolution would be like a factory owner in 1900 dismissing electricity as a passing trend.

AI Today: A Familiar Force In Business

Let’s first take stock of where we are. Modern AI is narrow AI—technologies built to handle specific tasks. Whether it’s a large language model (LLM) chatbot responding to customers, algorithms optimizing supply chains, or systems predicting loan defaults, today’s AI excels at isolated functions.

After over a decade of relative quiescence, the global AI market is expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, according to Grand View Research, fueled by advancements in natural language processing, generative AI, and machine learning (ML). Yet despite these advancements, narrow AI lacks something inherently human: adaptability. It cannot “think” across domains or creatively problem-solve in ambiguous or multidisciplinary contexts.

“We are building smarter systems,” notes Andrew Ng, founder of Google Brain and DeepLearning.AI, “Despite all the hype and excitement about AI, it’s still extremely limited today relative to human intelligence.”

The Next Advancement: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Artificial General Intelligence is the next great threshold. AGI refers to systems that can perform any intellectual task a human can, with the ability to learn, reason, and adapt in ways that mimic our ersatz human cognitive abilities. AGI will bring about mainstream agentic AI in which independent AI agents orchestrate decisions and activities and collaborate among one another.

AGI is not here yet, but its arrival may come sooner than many expect. While timelines vary, with some AI researchers predicting AGI within the decade—especially given the accelerating pace of generative AI and large language models.

AGI’s potential impact on businesses is enormous. Unlike today’s AI, AGI will likely:

Manage complexity across functions. Imagine applications and machines that integrate marketing insights with supply chain data, corporate strategy, and macroeconomic forecasts—seamlessly.
Enable new innovation models. AGI systems will invent and generate products, strategies, and business models at a speed and creativity level we can’t yet fathom.
Transform workforces. Jobs will evolve and others will vanish. AGI will handle strategic and operational decision-making, and brute-force tasks, while human workers cloister into jobs still requiring collaboration and creativity based on relationships, along with fewer and fewer types of manual labor.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, in his recent seminal paper Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, points to a more futuristic reality: “Once systems achieve a certain level of situational awareness, they will anticipate outcomes and optimize pathways to objectives in ways that humans cannot comprehend or foresee.”

The Ultimate Achievement: Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)

Once AGI arrives, experts believe Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) will follow shortly thereafter, driven by systems capable of improving their own intelligence exponentially. ASI represents a world where machines surpass human intelligence—not just in specific areas but across all domains, and even inventing new domains. If AGI is a match for human cognitive abilities, ASI would be something alien-like, operating enigmatically beyond the limits of human comprehension. It could explicate and solve problems that today seem unsolvable, introduce innovations inconceivable to us, and redefine the very fabric of economies, businesses, and societies.

The timelines for ASI are uncertain, but there’s good reason to believe it will emerge shortly after AGI due to recursive self-improvement. Once machines achieve general intelligence, they could enhance their own design and capabilities at a speed far beyond human intervention.

The economic implications of ASI are staggering. On one hand, ASI could drive unparalleled productivity, innovation, economic growth, and the unravelling of universal arcana. On the other, it raises existential questions:

How will businesses and technology leaders adapt to a perfunctory intelligence far beyond their own?
Will ASI reinforce monopolies for companies that control it, or democratize opportunities?
How will societies grapple with the evanescence of human decision-making and the disintermediation of other vocational activities?
Will ASI adulterate the global economy and the products and services we use, thereby diminishing the human experience?

“ASI is both awe-inspiring and spine-chilling. Imagine an intelligence surpassing humanity in every possible domain,” says Pramod Rao, associate director, digital health & experience innovation at Alexion Pharmaceuticals. “Entire sectors are on the brink of being reimagined, and geopolitics reshaped.”

Implications For Businesses And Leaders

So, what does all this mean for business leaders today? You can’t afford to wait until AGI or ASI arrives. Preparing now will determine which companies thrive and which are left behind.

Invest in AI literacy. AI is no longer an IT concern—it’s a strategic one. Your leadership team must understand AI capabilities, limits, and evolution pathways. And throughout the organization, individuals must be able to incorporate AI into most workstreams.
Balance bold experimentation with ethics. While governance, transparency, and ethical AI use will set leaders apart from laggards, businesses must also push the limits of ideation and experimentation to remain competitive. Striking this balance between rational responsibility and intrepid innovation will ensure trust and fairness while fostering breakthroughs that define market leaders.
Explore human-AI, machine-AI, and human-machine-AI collaboration. Even as AGI looms, the most successful businesses, in the near term at least, will focus on enhancing, not replacing, human ingenuity while exploring synergies and integration among machines and AI systems to foster new levels of productivity, risk-reduction, and innovation.
Prepare proactively for disruption. The leap from narrow AI to AGI to ASI won’t be linear, and waiting to react to changes will leave businesses behind. Proactively identify emerging opportunities, experiment with new business models, and invest in systems that position your organization to adapt to economic shifts, workforce evolution, and entirely new markets. Embracing agility must go beyond competency—it should become a strategic advantage. Aggressively identify emerging opportunities, experiment with new business models, and invest in systems that position your organization to adapt to economic shifts, workforce evolution, and entirely new markets. Embracing agility must go beyond competency—it should become a strategic advantage.

The path from AI to AGI to ASI will challenge our assumptions about intelligence, value creation, work, and the role of humans in business and society. It will force leaders to rethink not just how their business operates, but why. It is a time to lead, not react.

We may be decades away from AGI or ASI, but the businesses that anticipate and adapt will define the future. Those who dismiss it—like factory owners who ignored electricity—risk obsolescence.

“Machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make,” posits AI ethicist and Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom. He further cautions that we are speeding towards the future without a clear roadmap or guidance.

For business and technology leaders, the time to chart that course is now.