The Tories’ support has dropped to 2005 levels in the wake of the scandal over Downing Street parties. Boris Johnson and half the cabinet would be on course to lose their seats if an election were held now, according to a poll. The Conservatives would lose 164 seats, leaving them with 201, only three more than when they were led by Michael Howard.
The MRP model projection, which maps polling results onto every seat in the country, puts Labour on 352 seats, a gain of 150, with an overall majority of 14 for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
The Conservatives would lose all six of their seats in Scotland and all 14 in Wales.
They would also surrender 55 of the 65 “red wall” constituencies in the north that contributed to Johnson’s landslide win in 2019. Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, North West Durham, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Ashfield would swing to Labour. Of the 107 Conservative MPs elected for the first time nationwide in 2019, 70 would lose their seats.
The JL Partners poll of 4,500 people and the seat projection was conducted by James Johnson, Theresa May’s former pollster. It put Labour on 45 per cent of the vote, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives on 32 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 11 per cent — enough to win 16 seats, five more than last time.
Johnson, who has a majority of just over 5,000 in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat (the smallest for a sitting prime minister since 1924), would be the most prominent casualty of such a defeat, one of 12 Tory MPs in London out of 21 to lose.
Another ten cabinet ministers would also lose their seats. They include Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Simon Clarke. The model predicts that Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, would just hold on in Esher and Walton, but a small amount of tactical voting for the Lib Dems would sweep him away as well.
Of the 50 Tory MPs who are parliamentary private secretaries, the first rung on the ministerial ladder, 28 are due to lose their seats.
The poll will be a wake-up call for Tory MPs, who have begun to rally around Johnson as a leader in a time of war and as they wait for the outcome of the Metropolitan Police investigation into lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street.
Johnson himself is a drag on Conservative support. He has a personal approval rating of -39. Starmer’s is -7. Over the past two years the proportion of voters who say Johnson is “strong” or “has a clear vision for Britain” has more than halved. Only 9 per cent say Johnson “tells the truth”.
His two most likely successors do much better. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has a net rating of zero, while Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is on -17. Truss and Sunak are viewed more positively than Johnson in every seat in the country.
Starmer beats Johnson on all but three metrics. Starmer is ahead on “tells the truth”, “stands up for people like me”, “good on detail”, “inspiring”, “shares my values”, “competent”, “stands up for the north”, “someone who brings people together”, “says what he means”, “fair”, “caring”, “best to rebuild the country”, “has a clear vision for Britain”, “best to handle the coronavirus pandemic”, “strong” and “determined”.
Johnson retains a lead on “patriotic”, “stands up for the south”, and “charismatic”. The prime minister is also seen as more “corrupt” and likely to “break the rules” than Starmer.
Another key factor is that pensioners are turning away from the Tories. In 2019 the Tories led Labour by 59 per cent to 20 per cent among the over-65s, a lead of 29 points. Now they would only win by 14 points. The next election is due in 2024.
James Johnson said: “On these numbers, the Conservatives face electoral wipeout. Though Keir Starmer’s ratings remain negative, the sharp difference in comparison to Boris Johnson’s ratings mean Labour are benefitting by default.
“Though it is possible to see the gap narrowing in an actual election contest, and significant brand problems for Labour persevere, it is becoming less and less likely to see a situation in which the Conservatives win a majority under Boris Johnson. ‘Partygate’ has been damaging and has all the signs of being long-lasting.
“The prime minister no longer leads on the ‘must-have’ attributes that won him the 2019 election: strength, the ability to get things done, and a sense he was an authentic politician.”
The Welsh Tories losing all of their seats here would be beautiful.
Disappointed it is any of the Cabinet keeping their seats. Recognising that there will always be Conservative Members of Parliament, at least let’s have competent ones.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the tories will win again. The war in Ukraine could not have come at a more opportune time. Just like the Falkland war was for Thatcher.
Due to incompetence or because Johnson wants revenge?
Bojo must be laughing at this and hoping it drags on as long as possible
6 comments
The Tories’ support has dropped to 2005 levels in the wake of the scandal over Downing Street parties. Boris Johnson and half the cabinet would be on course to lose their seats if an election were held now, according to a poll. The Conservatives would lose 164 seats, leaving them with 201, only three more than when they were led by Michael Howard.
The MRP model projection, which maps polling results onto every seat in the country, puts Labour on 352 seats, a gain of 150, with an overall majority of 14 for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
The Conservatives would lose all six of their seats in Scotland and all 14 in Wales.
They would also surrender 55 of the 65 “red wall” constituencies in the north that contributed to Johnson’s landslide win in 2019. Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, North West Durham, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Ashfield would swing to Labour. Of the 107 Conservative MPs elected for the first time nationwide in 2019, 70 would lose their seats.
The JL Partners poll of 4,500 people and the seat projection was conducted by James Johnson, Theresa May’s former pollster. It put Labour on 45 per cent of the vote, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives on 32 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 11 per cent — enough to win 16 seats, five more than last time.
Johnson, who has a majority of just over 5,000 in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat (the smallest for a sitting prime minister since 1924), would be the most prominent casualty of such a defeat, one of 12 Tory MPs in London out of 21 to lose.
Another ten cabinet ministers would also lose their seats. They include Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Alok Sharma, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Simon Clarke. The model predicts that Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, would just hold on in Esher and Walton, but a small amount of tactical voting for the Lib Dems would sweep him away as well.
Of the 50 Tory MPs who are parliamentary private secretaries, the first rung on the ministerial ladder, 28 are due to lose their seats.
The poll will be a wake-up call for Tory MPs, who have begun to rally around Johnson as a leader in a time of war and as they wait for the outcome of the Metropolitan Police investigation into lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street.
Johnson himself is a drag on Conservative support. He has a personal approval rating of -39. Starmer’s is -7. Over the past two years the proportion of voters who say Johnson is “strong” or “has a clear vision for Britain” has more than halved. Only 9 per cent say Johnson “tells the truth”.
His two most likely successors do much better. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has a net rating of zero, while Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is on -17. Truss and Sunak are viewed more positively than Johnson in every seat in the country.
Starmer beats Johnson on all but three metrics. Starmer is ahead on “tells the truth”, “stands up for people like me”, “good on detail”, “inspiring”, “shares my values”, “competent”, “stands up for the north”, “someone who brings people together”, “says what he means”, “fair”, “caring”, “best to rebuild the country”, “has a clear vision for Britain”, “best to handle the coronavirus pandemic”, “strong” and “determined”.
Johnson retains a lead on “patriotic”, “stands up for the south”, and “charismatic”. The prime minister is also seen as more “corrupt” and likely to “break the rules” than Starmer.
Another key factor is that pensioners are turning away from the Tories. In 2019 the Tories led Labour by 59 per cent to 20 per cent among the over-65s, a lead of 29 points. Now they would only win by 14 points. The next election is due in 2024.
James Johnson said: “On these numbers, the Conservatives face electoral wipeout. Though Keir Starmer’s ratings remain negative, the sharp difference in comparison to Boris Johnson’s ratings mean Labour are benefitting by default.
“Though it is possible to see the gap narrowing in an actual election contest, and significant brand problems for Labour persevere, it is becoming less and less likely to see a situation in which the Conservatives win a majority under Boris Johnson. ‘Partygate’ has been damaging and has all the signs of being long-lasting.
“The prime minister no longer leads on the ‘must-have’ attributes that won him the 2019 election: strength, the ability to get things done, and a sense he was an authentic politician.”
The Welsh Tories losing all of their seats here would be beautiful.
Disappointed it is any of the Cabinet keeping their seats. Recognising that there will always be Conservative Members of Parliament, at least let’s have competent ones.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the tories will win again. The war in Ukraine could not have come at a more opportune time. Just like the Falkland war was for Thatcher.
Due to incompetence or because Johnson wants revenge?
Bojo must be laughing at this and hoping it drags on as long as possible
Certainly a convenient distraction