How big are the chances of Putin giving up Assad in a deal to keep the harbor and airfield in Syria operational?

7 comments

1. [removed]

2. Next to zero. Putin may be despicable but he doesn’t abandon loyal allies.

3. Unlikely. You don’t want to signal to your dictator friends that they are up for sale.

4. They already left the airfield.

5. Zero. Every single dictator would know that they are up for sale.

6. There are two possible courses of action realpolitik style. 

   The one who directly benefits the country as in national interest of being able to project power from an allied country. I.e surrendering Assad to forge a new alliance. A pretty hard one still, I don’t think you can just say “whoops sorry for indiscriminately bombing you the last 10 years, let’s be friends now”. 

   And the one who personally benefit the current rulers. I.e sheltering Assad, signaling your dictators friends you are a reliable ally and so we will mutually have our back should something bad happen to our regimes, also avoiding such thing as a trial and facing punishment by the people who were formerly oppressed such scenario could give some French revolution vibes and bad ideas to the people. 

   And Putin will always put his and his men interest first before the country’s. 

7. Sounds like HST is more interested in consolidating power than settling scores. If and when Syria does stabilise and by some micricle transition to democracy, we might see a serious attempt at prosecution. But we are a very long way off.

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