1) Sectors that have high growth and are accelerating

These sectors have high growth potential, with positive secular trends, or are particularly sensitive to interest rates and thus will benefit from their decline. These include:

Information and communication technologies (ICT): with a boost provided by digitalisation and the adoption of new technologies, the ICT sector is benefiting from solid structural growth (+5.4% on average between 2015 and 2019). In 2024, this sector’s growth (+3.2%) has been below its historical average, but we expect that it will approach its long-term growth rate in 2025, reaching +4.6%.

Professional and administrative activities: the growing complexity of businesses and the need for specialised services are driving demand in this sector. Consulting, advisory and administrative services have a positive secular trend, and after recording growth of 3.7% in 2024, we expect them to accelerate to 4.8% in 2025.

Construction: in 2023, the construction sector grew by 2.1%, falling short of the growth rate of the economy as a whole. Despite the significant mismatch between supply (around 110,000 units per year) and demand (the creation of 265,400 net households in 2023, according to the Labour Force Survey, due to the significant increase in migration flows), the sector was weighed down by increased financing and construction costs. With the fall in rates, the sector will receive a boost from the lower financing costs and we expect it to accelerate to 2.4% in 2024 and to 3.3% in 2025. Even so, we expect that the mismatch between supply and demand will persist, mainly because of factors restricting supply, such as the lack of available land. The deployment of NGEU funds will help provide a boost to the sector, although according to the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), the volume of contracts in urban refurbishment projects is lagging, with only 23% of contracts formalised and grants awarded. This stands in stark contrast with the execution of grants for sustainable mobility infrastructure, which stands between 72 and 92%.

Real estate activities: following a buoyant 2022 (16.2%), the real estate sector experienced a sharp slowdown in 2023 (5.4%) as a result of the rate hikes. With the start of the rate cuts, 2024 has been a year of transition for the sector and we expect it to have grown by 4.5%. As rates continue to decline in 2025, we expect the sector to accelerate to 5.5%, outpacing the Spanish economy as a whole.

2) Sectors that have high growth but are slowing

These sectors continue to show robust growth, although the pace of that growth is moderating as the exceptional factors which previously drove their expansion steadily fade:

Agriculture, forestry and fishing: following a slump in 2022 (–20.3%), the sector is experiencing a rapid recovery driven by the improvement in climatic conditions and the reduction of production costs. In 2023, the sector recovered by 6.5% and for 2024 we expect growth of 7.0%. This will be followed by a slight slowdown in 2025, at 5.5%, as the momentum provided by the end of the drought dissipates. The food products industry will continue to enjoy a recovery, in line with production in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and the decline in its input prices. In the medium term, the sector’s outlook will be highly dependent on its capacity to adapt to climate change.

Manufacturing industry: the manufacturing industry recorded moderate growth in 2023 (+2.1%), held back by the rise in energy costs that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as by the rise in rates. In 2024, the sector has enjoyed a recovery and we expect it to grow by 3.9%, driven by the improved competitiveness of Spain’s industry relative to that of the rest of Europe Compared to the situation prior to 2022, energy costs in Spain have been at a lower level relative to that of our European competitors. This is due to the country’s lower exposure to Russian gas and the significant role of renewables in Spain’s electricity generation. For 2025, we forecast growth of 2.3% in the GVA of manufacturing, which is similar to that of the Spanish economy as a whole.