Too Little Too Late: US Allies Say Biden Strategy Cost Ukraine Chance of Victory

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1. In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctions aimed at weakening Vladimir Putin’s economy.

   Officials in Ukraine and several allied capitals say it’s too little too late.

   Regardless of what Biden does in his final weeks, they said, Ukraine is heading toward a bitter settlement in which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that fall short of the NATO membership he’s pleaded for. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that outcome will largely be a consequence of decisions that Biden took, or failed to take, over the past two years.

   Despite the US sending more than $90 billion in aid and arms, some allies are frustrated with Biden for stalling on key decisions to deliver more advanced weapons at crucial points in the conflict.

   In the fall of 2022, Ukrainian forces had Putin on the back foot and Zelenskiy was appealing to Biden for more weapons to press home his advantage. But Biden hesitated. His thinking was shaped by the possibility that an escalation might bring Russia’s nuclear arsenal into play, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has suggested.

   “His heart was undoubtedly in the right place — he understood the importance of standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression,” former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview. “However, his approach was often too cautious and too hesitant, holding back on delivering the decisive support needed to tip the balance.”

   Sullivan has refuted that view, saying on Dec. 7 that the US operation to arm Ukraine both before and during the war had been an “extraordinary feat.” Indeed, US support was critical for ensuring that Ukraine wasn’t overrun, especially at the start of the war, and rallying allies after the invasion.

   Other US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, voiced their frustration with some European governments who they said were slow to accept that Putin would invade and then reluctant to ship weapons at all, at least until they learned of the abuses the Russians had perpetrated. Europe has often bristled at tougher sanctions and even as the US position on inviting Ukraine to join NATO appeared to soften, opposition in Berlin and elsewhere remained firm, the officials noted.

   The paradox, other officials said, is that the outcome for Ukraine is now similar regardless of whether Biden or Donald Trump are in charge. Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and his national security nominees have indicated that any deal would likely see Ukraine having to accept freezing its territory along current battle lines and give up its aspiration of joining NATO any time soon.

   Behind the incipient blame game lies a deeper truth that frustrates officials on both sides of the Atlantic: for all the talk of European capitals reviving their hard power, the US is still the only NATO country that can tip the balance in a major conflict involving Russia. So the outcome of the war in Ukraine will inevitably be shaped by decisions taken in the White House.

   As a Cold War veteran who joined arms control negotiations with the Soviet Union, Biden was obsessed with the danger of nuclear escalation, one of the officials said. When urged to do more US officials repeatedly said that the risks were just too great. Other allies, like Germany, had similar worries.

   The fundamental problem, according to two senior European officials, was that Biden’s strategy seemed geared to preventing Ukraine from losing, without setting out a path to victory. That, the officials said, left Ukraine locked into a drawn-out conflict costing tens of thousands of lives.

   But going all-in wasn’t the only option open to Biden.

   Less than a year into the war, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley offered an alternative approach which wouldn’t have incurred the same risk of Russian escalation: push Zelenskiy into talks with Putin.

   “The Russian military is really hurting bad,” Milley said in November 2022. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness.”

   At that point in the conflict, though, such suggestions were considered beyond the pale. The mantra from western officials, in public and private, was that only Zelenskiy and the Ukrainians would decide when to negotiate.

   According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither.

   While the US did increase weapons supplies ahead of the failed counteroffensive of 2023, two former UK officials said they had tried to convince Biden that much more was needed much more quickly, but they ran into his concerns of nuclear escalation. Those concerns were overstated, one UK official said, because at every stage the Russian threats proved illusory.

   US officials argue that, on the contrary, sabotage attacks in Europe and Moscow’s increasingly intensive targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure show that Putin was prepared to escalate so they had to take his nuclear threats seriously.

   “The president has another responsibility that’s unique,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at an event in Washington this week. “Where the buck stops is at that desk, and it has been his responsibility to make sure that Ukraine has everything we can possibly provide to deal with the aggression — but also to avoid a direct conflict with with Russia. We don’t need a direct conflict between nuclear-armed powers.”

   Officials in Washington said that the US ultimately sent everything it could, when stocks allowed and when in their assessment capabilities made sense on the battlefield. To that effect, the ramp-up in ammunition supplies has helped to narrow a Russian advantage which had seen them firing several times more shells than the Ukrainians earlier in the conflict.

   US officials also argue that no single capability is a silver bullet and that Ukraine is now impeded more by a shortage of manpower than weapons.

   CIA chief William Burns said earlier this year that there was “a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons” in the fall of 2022, but that the US and its allies shouldn’t be intimidated by what he called Moscow’s saber-rattling. Burns met his Russian counterpart in Turkey that November to warn him against the use of nuclear weapons.

   Nevertheless, as Biden agonized over whether to send more air defenses, longer range missiles, or fighter jets to Kyiv, Putin trained his missiles on Ukraine’s cities. That weakened Kyiv’s economy and the resolve of its people, degrading the war-torn country’s ability to fight back, while Moscow was granted crucial time to prepare and adapt its defenses.

   “We do believe that earlier and more would have been quite decisive,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said in an interview. “But it is what it is.”

2. Maybe these numb-nuts don’t remember the GOP delaying the congressional action to authorize military assistance to Ukraine for over a year. during an offensive I will add.

3. I’m gonna have a hard time seeing the outgoing administration as little more than chickenhawks. 

4. just wait a few months and see trump sucking up to putin and demanding ukraine capitulate.

   there will be no help after january except from europe,canada and australia

5. Biden lost the domestic narrative over Ukraine and that doomed him. I voted for him and am so disappointed by how pussy footed they were.

6. I agree that the Biden Admin has been a little too cautious and under delivered on hardware aid.

   However i think the narrative of Ukraine just needing a little bit more momentum in the closing months of 2022 and it would have won a decisive victory deserves a lot of scrutiny.

   I remember following the Kharkiv offensive day by day. It surpassed everyone’s expectations and was a massive success. But it culminated. The advance began to slow and was turned around in a few places, like all offensives eventually are. The Russians began to regroup and formed new lines around the Oskil. I’ve read Ukrainian accounts saying they were running out of steam and actually praising the pragmatism of when they decided to gather breath. Those lines have broadly held to this day.

   Down south in Kherson the obvious barrier was the river, which Ukraine never had any chance of crossing at short notice.

   So the subsequent Russian mobilisation, restack and development of the Surovikin line was, i think, largely unavoidable. The Ukrainians should have been told they had F16s in Feb 22, same with tanks (and in more numbers). But i don’t think they would ever have had the overall firepower to thunder run the Russians throughout winter 2022 and spring 2023. If anything the Russians were doing their own intensive Bakhmut siege throughout that period while also restacking the whole front.

7. It’s not just “Biden” or “Oh, look at Republicans” or even the Orange Blob… Pretty self-centered thinking, again… This is about the whole US alliance, meaning and trust, *even if Ukraine wins or manages to get out of it with a decent deal*. My only hope as a European is the end of dependence on the US defense industry.

8. We are always alternately saying that Ukraine can and cannot beat Russia.

   What’s for sure though, is that Biden’s drip-feeding resulted in Ukraine not winning the war *before* he leaves office. God knows what will come after that. Because for good or bad, Putin is not in a position to be putting the squeeze on Trump any more.

   It’s not like the man needs to look for election again, after all.

9. Bloomberg’s CEO is Vladimir Kliatchko, Russian born and raised. But perhaps that’s not relevant, who knows.

10. Biden was limited in what he could do, in part due to GOP resistance. That doesn’t change the fact that he could have done more and become more unpopular as it mattered not in the end.

11. Many have been ranting on this for years including me. Who cared about this..?

    This isn’t even a hindsight critique. When are we as a whole going to be capable of having independent thoughts and tell right from wrong instead of always hopping into any bandwagon we see?

    And if people start hating on *this* reflection (due to seeing some Russians come and imitate Ukrainian or American and lead this hate), instead of properly and honestly reflecting on these, things aren’t going to get any better forever as it’d be an infinite loop created by Russia. Think independently. The US hesitate to give enough support because the public isn’t giving enough support. By now it’s irreversible isn’t it? Does everything have to be like this? Do the evil entities like Russia always win because people in democratic countries can’t think right? And it’s always this moment when some “either stupid or evil” people come and say *”so anyone who doesn’t agree with you are supporting Russia? Get over yourself”.* Do people by now not see these types of response questions as a cliché for discrediting people?

12. US allies have been pussies, too. Britain, France, and Germany could all have stepped in, been real allies, and fucked Russia up in a big way.

    Did Biden drop the ball? Yup. Did Macron, Sunak, and Shultz, also? Fuck yes.

    Especially Sunak, in my mind. Johnson had actually set a good narrative for Britain, but Sunak (and now Starmer) lost their balls.

13. Every party at the table could have done more. That includes Ukraine – but the difference is that Ukraine’s involved in a war, whereas the western backers are able to watch and observe.

    That to me suggest it is entirely fair to attribute a higher expectation of even-handedness and foresight on behalf of those powers. It’s no small thing to reform an army or a civic system at war – by no means am I giving Ukraine a pass, I am highlighting that others have far less constraints.

    I’d argue with the exception of some Eastern European nations they’ve all failed when compared to what they *could* have done – plenty of blame to go around. And as for where my actual sympathies lie – my post history speaks for itself.

14. Biden is legitimately one of the worst ever US presidents..

    1. Failed to protect us democracy and the constitution. The US republic is over. There is no longer rule of law.

    2. Overwatched and supported and armed a genocide / massacre /ethnic cleansing /war crimes by an ally.

    3. Failed to support Europe when a major land war was started by Russia. He allowed us support to totally dry up at a crucial period resulting in heavy ukranian losses and did the bare minimum at other times.

    So he fucked the US and fucked Europe and Ukraine. Well done.

15. Yeah Biden could have done more, Germany still hasnt even delivered Taurus lol

16. This article is 100% correct. What was said in private is now being said in public. Biden slow rolled this war. I do fault European heads of state for not speaking up sooner and more forefully. Expect even more once Biden is out of office. Expect more when senior officers are retired and free to speak. What they have said in public was critical but diplomatic and oblique. Now the statements will be less oblique and add Biden’s name, when before it was in all but name.

17. Yallccan blame the United States and I can’t deny that Biden and this congress drip fed the support.

    But that deflects from the fact that Europe is reliant on the US to protect it’s proxies. That’s a bad strategy.

18. Yep, it’s too bad Congress deliberately stalled during critical times, or when Musk listened to Russia and compromised starlink access.

19. Close to 3000 Abrams tanks in storage in Sierra depot in CA – Biden sent 31 and even then this was only to force Scholz to stop blocking Leopard 1 deliveries.

    Himars sent- only after their max range was nerfed via software patch.

    F-16s sent only after 2 years of non-stop prodding by the Dutch and the Danes – 12 pilots trained and certified and 1 already killed. Training of UA pilots is still not a DOD priority.

    Blocked Sweden from sending Gripen fighters because of ITAW restrictions on American made parts used in them, Sweden is now rebuilding all the jets at the costs of hundreds of millions of dollars to potentially deploy them in Ukraine next year.

    Diverted all 155mm artillery shells to Israel in October 23 and didn’t send any artillery ammo for months reducing UA artillery teams to 15 SHELLS PER DAY in May/June of this year which caused Ukraine massive issues with Russian artillery offensives.

    Let hundreds of Bradley IFVS get cut up into scrap rather then send them to Ukraine.

    Blocked Ukraine from directly buying US weapons.

    Called Zelensky “President Putin’ on live TV.

    This coward never wanted to Ukraine to win.

20. EU can do plenty if they didn’t dawdle, they could single handily end this thing whenever they want just by going all in. Truthfully, the EU should be concerned about this and do more because it impacts them more than it does the US.

21. This was always about bleeding Russia out, and avoiding nukes.
    The Dems fucked up in the early stages for sure, but what about Europe cozying up to Russia after 2014. If they actually had any balls or common sense they would have ramped up then.

22. Strategy? His strategy was denied by Trump Republicans doing all they can to stop the aide or get something out of it that has nothing to do with Ukraine. They stopped an aide package unless those slimy republicans got border security and immigration money. Then when a compromised was figured out, they STILL didn’t do it. It’s like saying Trump was successful during his one term when he did nothing for illegal immigration, zero, nada, but claimed success because he stopped LEGAL immigration. King poopy pants is such a felon con artist.

    A strategy only works if those involved are on the same page; which the Republicans were not nor did they care about it or Ukraine.

    Same shit they did to Obama. But yeah, blame it on Biden. Makes perfect sense given the background. Not surprising those ‘allies’ cite Biden but never point to those that forced his hand at every turn nor is it that Bloomberg casually leaves this out.

23. To be fair Biden warned Ukraine to prepare for months and they did shit and pretended Russia wouldn’t invade

    That said, Biden should’ve opened up the weapons floodgate from the start and immediately committed to a no-fly zone over the Ukrainian theater

24. Yup, the old man though he faced the Soviet Union and offered Russia way too much respect.

25. Jake Sullivan appears to have had more power than first thought after reading the WSJ article on Biden’s decline. Awful.

26. Let’s make sure we remember that the reason Ukraine is suffering is Putin, not Biden. We can certainly play backseat driver to history and talk about what may have gone differently if this or that went differently. But the biggest difference would be if Putin didn’t invade. He didn’t invade the USA, he invaded Ukraine. Ukraine was not strong enough to prevent it or to kick them out. The USA led the way in helping them. If it wasn’t enough for Ukraine to win it wasn’t enough. But let’s make sure we blame the invader, not those who helped. Ukraine wasn’t owed anything, and other parties in the world have gotten nothing from the world when they were going under, but Ukraine got lots of help in their war.

27. Feel free to step in and do something Western Europe. Ukraine is your backyard not ours. US has it’s own problems at the moment.

28. Crazy how US Allies are in any position to say anything when the U.S. has done more than any of them have and almost always at a faster rate.

    For the U.S., this is one front of many. For Europe, this is their sole concern.

    The U.S. must compete with an actual near peer adversary largely alone in the Indo-Pacific, meanwhile Russia is outproduced by NATO 45:2 and our NATO Allies seem still incapable of containing the threat.

29. As they say watching your football team screw the pooch, if you don’t enjoy it, you don’t enjoy football.

    Replace football with American Foreign Policy.

    This was never going to end well and once the immediate invasion was pushed back was the time to negotiate. Or even before like how the French tried desperately and doesn’t seem so bad now.

    Now you have Russia in a war time economy, and like only having a hammer in your tool kit, the hammer seems like the only solution.

30. True

31. We had a strategy???

32. So this article is arguing that if Biden had given more weapons sooner Ukraine could have pushed back Russian forces further in November 22? It sights that moment specifically.

    I’m annoyed that there wasn’t a more aggressive approach from the Biden team but I don’t think there’s good evidence that Russia was that vulnerable then. Maybe Ukraine could have reclaimed more territory, that’s not nothing. But I don’t think they could have pushed Russia all the way back to the 14 borders, with what we know now about how willing they are to absorb casualties. The battle line would be 5 or 10 or 50 km further East in 2023 but who’s to say Ukraine wouldn’t have had to give back that territory in the Russian 23 offensive?

    Does anyone really think November 22 would have been a great time to launch an all out attack?

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