France’s military is being ousted from more African countries. Here’s why

It’s been a tumultuous month for France and its relationship with former colonies in Africa, as its influence on the continent faces the biggest challenge in decades.

As Paris was devising a new military strategy that would sharply reduce its permanent troop presence in Africa, two of its closest allies struck a double blow.

The government of Chad, considered France’s most stable and loyal partner in Africa, announced on its Independence Day it was ending defense cooperation to redefine its sovereignty.

And in an interview published hours later by Le Monde, Senegal’s new president said it was “obvious” that soon French soldiers wouldn’t be on Senegalese soil.

Why are West African countries expelling French troops?

Growing anti-French sentiment has led to street protests in several West and North African countries, while governments that gained power on pledges of redefining relationships with the West say ties with France have not benefited the population. They want to explore options with Russia, China, Turkey and other powers.

Chad’s President Mahamat Deby would not have made this decision if he did not have security guarantees from another actor. We know he’s received serious support from the United Arab Emirates, who are very interested in what’s going on in neighboring Sudan and Darfur. We know that Turkey also made some outreach.

Chad borders four countries with Russian military presence. In January, Deby traveled to Moscow to reinforce relations with the “partner country.”

Military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso who expelled the French military have moved closer to Russia, which has mercenaries deployed across the Sahel who have been accused of abuses against civilians.

But the security situation has worsened in those countries, with increasing numbers of extremist attacks and civilian deaths from both armed groups and government forces. Over the first six months of this year, 3,064 civilians were killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a 25% increase over the previous six months.

It is impossible to say whether the departure of French forces led to the increased violence. But it created a “huge security vacuum,” said analyst Shaantanu Shankar with the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding that it cannot be filled by Russia. Troops from the Russian private military company Wagner are being financed by the junta governments with fewer financial resources, he said.