International Relations Theory Suggests Great-Power War Is Coming

4 comments

1. Submission statement:

   > Liberal scholars also argue that economic interdependence mitigates conflict. But this theory always had a chicken-and-egg problem. Is trade driving good relations, or are good relations driving trade? We are seeing the answer play out in real time.
   >
   > The free world is recognizing that it is too economically dependent on its enemies in Moscow and Beijing, and it is decoupling as fast as it can. Western corporations pulled out of Russia overnight. New legislation and regulations in the United States, Europe, and Japan are restricting trade and investment in China. It is simply irrational for Wall Street to invest in Chinese technology companies that are working with China’s People’s Liberation Army to develop weapons intended to kill Americans.
   >
   > But China is also decoupling from the free world. Xi is prohibiting Chinese tech firms from listing on Wall Street, for example, because he doesn’t want to share proprietary information with Western powers. The economic interdependence between the liberal and illiberal worlds that has served as a ballast against conflict is now eroding.
   >
   > Democratic peace theory says democracies cooperate with other democracies. But the central fault line in the international system today, as Biden explains, is “the battle between democracy and autocracy.”

2. Autocracies are not doing so hot right now.

   Iran just got its proxies wrecked and can’t even respond to Israeli hostile actions within Iran itself.

   Russia’s economy is failing so hard that its central bank has given up on controlling inflation. It may not be enough to lose the war in Ukraine but it’s going to be rough time ahead.

   China is doing the best of the three but is enduring it’s hardest economic slump in decades

   These countries are in no shape for a battle of autocracies vs democracies

3. International relations theory has been downright wrong a lot of the time. Remember “The End of History” and other assorted theoretical/analytical rubbish?

   History does repeat itself, if you choose to interpret happenings that way, but that’s a very reductive viewpoint. The reality is that every new scenario is different – the people are different, the circumstances – while they may be similar – *are* different nonetheless, the environment is different, the context is different…it’s extremely lazy to assume history simply repeats itself. Of course things are similar, as countries rarely change geographically, therefore similar scenarios can take place. But to say the same thing will happen? Ridiculous.

   We may have a great power war, we may not, nobody can predict this. All we can say is that tensions continue…as they have always done.

4. Some serious points were raised, but much of the article reeks of propaganda and dishonesty, not to excuse in the slightest the other side.

Comments are closed.