New data from the Central Bank of the Iranian regime indicates that GDP growth from March 20 to September 22 has halved compared to the same period last year.
According to Central Bank statistics, the country’s economic growth was 5.3% from March 20 to September 22, 2023, but this year, it has fallen to 2.9% during the same period.
The details reveal that economic growth in the summer of this year was even lower than in the spring, registering 2.7% with oil included and only 2.3% without oil.
A significant point in the Central Bank’s data is that economic growth over the past two years has been primarily driven by increased oil exports rather than sectors such as services, industry, agriculture, and others directly affecting people’s livelihoods.
According to this governmental body’s estimates, Iran experienced overall economic growth of 5% last year, driven by an 18.8% increase in the oil sector’s added value. In the first half of this year, the oil sector’s growth was 9.3%, contributing to the overall rise in the national economy.
Data from the commodity information company Kpler, along with tanker tracking firms like Vortexa, show that Iran’s oil exports have grown by 34% this year compared to last year and by approximately 100% compared to the year before.
Iran exports 40% of its oil and condensate production and 7% of its gas production.
The halving of the country’s economic growth in the spring and summer occurred while data from Kpler and Vortexa indicate that Iran’s oil exports decreased by 500,000 barrels (about one-third) in the fall compared to the summer, increasing the likelihood of further economic decline in the fall.
However, the Central Bank’s estimates of economic growth in certain sectors face significant skepticism. For example, while reports from the Statistics Center indicate a shrinking share of industry and agriculture in the economy due to summer power outages, the Central Bank claims growth of 1.7% and 2.8% in the industrial and agricultural sectors during the summer.
The slowing economic growth comes as the government’s Seventh Development Plan, implemented this year for five years, aims for an “annual 8% economic growth.”
However, according to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s economic growth rate is expected to decline steadily from this year over the next five years, falling to 2%.
Data from the regime’s Statistics Center shows that Iran’s “national income per capita” fell by 20% in 2023 compared to 2011, reaching approximately 884 million rials (around $1,134).
The findings of this report indicate that in 2023, Iran has become poorer than before, a poverty now evident in most economic indicators and data.