One-man gang in pass game.
Forgive Mike Evans if he has a sore back. Because he’s carrying the Bucs’ passing offense.
That’s the word from one of the foremost football minds in the world of analytics, and that’s the creator of DVOA and the founder of Football Outsiders (RIP), Aaron Schatz.
Last year after Schatz sold his baby Football Outsiders and as a result watched it go kaput, Schatz shifted his work to FTN Fantasy where he still works his superior analytics-based analysis, replete with DVOA data.
(Don’t ask Joe to define “DVOA” but it is largely recognized as solid data.)
Anyway, Schatz was digging and found something that ought to freak out Bucs fans. Since Chris Godwin went down with his ankle injury against the Crows, the Bucs have downright sucked against man coverage, Schatz’s research shows.
That is, with the exception of Evans.
And look out now, Schatz types for BSPN, the Bucs’ last two opponents run primarily man-coverage defenses and the slimy Saints are better at it than many may realize.
According to FTN Fantasy charting, Mayfield ranks 33rd of 42 qualified quarterbacks in DVOA against man coverage since Week 7. Mike Evans, the Bucs’ other star receiver, hasn’t been the issue, as he has a 28.5% DVOA against man coverage this season. The problem is everyone else. Receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan, along with tight end Cade Otton, all have negative DVOA ratings against man looks.
Week 7 is when Godwin was lost for the season.
Joe is a little surprised at this because, hey, if the Bucs were really this rotten against man coverage, wouldn’t opponents run almost nothing but man against the Bucs?
In fact, Otton, before he got hurt before the Dallas game, was playing some of his best ball of his career. Did he make his plays mostly against zone coverage?
Schatz is one of the smartest football analysts Joe’s met and knows. So Schatz’s research findings are very, very interesting to Joe.