Mega-poll shows Labour would lose nearly 200 seats

11 comments

1. 🚨 First major post-election mega poll points to hung parliament, with huge gains by Reform — and an SNP majority in Scotland

   Popular vote:

   🌳Conservatives 26% (+2)

   🌹 Labour: 25% (-10)

   ➡️Reform UK 21% (+6)

   🔶Liberal Democrats 14% (+1)

   🌍 Green 8% (+1)

   Seats:

   🌹Labour: 228 (-183)

   🌳Conservatives: 222 (+101)

   ➡️Reform UK: 72 (+ 67)

   🔶Lib Dems: 58 (-14)

   🟡SNP: 37 (+28)

   ⬜️Independent: 8 (+3)

   🌼Plaid Cymru: 4 (-)

   🌍Green: 2 (-2)

2. I can’t imagine this differs from when any new government comes in and raises taxes at the start of their term.

   If it’s still this way in 4 years then it’s something to be taken more seriously.

3. Considering it has been not even 6 months since the election, I generally take these polls with a pinch of salt, as the next election (hopefully) should be in 2029, so it is still early days.

4. > France and Germany will hold fresh elections in the new year, with Ireland and the Netherlands seemingly under a perpetual coalition.

   I’m quite amazed that we are so convinced Macron will do a Von Papen that new elections in France in the new year are considered a fact rather than a possibility.

   —

   Anyway, I find it quite surprising that Labour could lose half of its seats in a matter of months after winning with a landslide. They can’t have enacted many policies in such a short timeframe? And seeing Reform UK at 21% and rising quickly is concerning.

5. I do wonder how those reform numbers will look after the conservatives get their shit together. The seat additions do look wild, BUT it isn’t too crazy considering their vote percentage.

   In reality it’s way too early to be caring about polls, but it’s good to have them every so often in order to gauge public opinion. But regardless reform will be the party to watch over the next few years.

6. Gee, who would have thought that a left wing party moving away from left wing political positions to appease the (far) right would result in losing left wing voters? With labour’s shift to the right probably all the progressive people will just stay at home feeling they do not have anyone worth voting for while the conservatives and reform will move even further to the right to differentiate themselves from the new Labour.

7. Isn’t it kinda normal for a newly elected government to take unpopular measures on the first months in power?

   I mean, doesn’t really make sense to say “if the election were today”, cause it’ll be five years. Many things can happen till then

8. Labour has to stop getting the election results as granted, because being not tory won’t work again.

   Being not trump was not enough, you have to also improve things for most people.

9. I have all the usual criticisms (from the left) of labour, but polling in the first year of a new term is pointless at best. Besides the fact that parties tend to take unpopular measures early and popular measures closer to elections, UK voters in particular do not pay any real attention to politics outside of election season and are far more likely to give credence to third parties, which rarely translates into actual vote share increase.

10. People have short memories. In a few years, everythibg that has happened so far in politics will be forgotten by the average voter. If Labour doesn’t do fuckups by then, they will probably be able to keep their majority.

11. They won by a literal landslide just months ago because people were fed up with the tories (right wing) bullshit. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a government party lose support at this lightspeed rate. What the heck is happening there? I get the new governments always get hit hard in popularity at the start, but the hate for Starmer’s party is apparently tremendous.

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