UNSPECIFIED, UKRAINE – DECEMBER 29: M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on Russian position on December … [+] 29, 2023 in Unspecified, Ukraine. M142 HIMARS proved to be a highly effective weapon, striking targets both on the front line and deep in the Russian rear. (Photo by Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
This year’s key stories will influence the global landscape in 2025, and history will permanently record their outcomes. Energy and climate are inextricably connected to world events and our future, impacting everything from climate change to presidential politics and the fate of the free world. The top five:
Number 5: The green hydrogen economy is coming soon. One of my stories is titled “Green Hydrogen Will Become The 21st Century Version of Oil.” It’s a nod to how far we have come and the potential that a zero-emissions fuel can power both the transportation and utility industries.
The green hydrogen market will expand from about $1 billion today to $30 billion in 2030, according to MarketsandMarkets. Low renewable energy prices and advancements in electrolysis will drive the growth.
Progress is occurring on the ground and in the air. Cummins had created a hydrogen-fueled truck that ran 1,806 miles. And ZeroAvia is building planes that run on hydrogen. It has already flown an aircraft on zero-emissions hydrogen power, and it plans to bring a 20-seater to market within two years. Maersk is also investing in green ammonia, which is closely related to hydrogen. Once these and other alternatively-fueled vessels hit the high seas, the shipper says their CO2 levels will fall by 1 million tons or 3%.
Florida Power & Light (FP&L) is constructing a hydrogen hub to supply its customers with 5% hydrogen and natural gas. The main goal is to reduce the utility’s reliance on natural gas.
Number 4: Natural disasters are taking a heavy toll on communities and countries, destroying homes and infrastructure. Climate change compounds hurricanes because they feed on warmer oceans, providing the fuel each needs to cause massive destruction. And warmer air holds more moisture, which causes heavy rainfall and extensive coastal flooding. As we approach the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, that will get worse.
Insure Our Future said global warming has led to $600 billion in losses over the last 20 years: between $475 billion and $720 billion between 2002 and 2022.
The two most recent hurricanes ravaged the United States, leaving behind billions in damages and nearly 5 million customers without electricity. Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on western North Carolina, where the flooding caused catastrophic destruction to the infrastructure.
AccuWeather estimates that the hurricane caused $7 billion in damages. Meanwhile, the cumulative effect of hurricanes in Florida totaled as high as $250 billion.
The Biden Administration has enacted policies encouraging American communities to adapt to and mitigate climate change, from hardening the transmission system to deploying more renewables. However, the incoming Trump Administration has downplayed the phenomenon.
CAMARILLO, CA – MAY 3: A man on a rooftop looks at approaching flames as the Springs fire continues … [+] to grow on May 3, 2013 near Camarillo, California. The wildfire has spread to more than 18,000 acres on day two and is 20 percent contained. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Number 3: Rising CO2 levels are confounding global climate talks, while the Global South gets increasingly desperate as it tries to create climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Copernicus Climate Change Service said 2024 will be the hottest on record: “After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.”
More extreme weather is coming. The Global North is shifting to renewables, and building hurricane-proof buildings. However, not even the richest amongst us can insulate themselves. Nevertheless, the Global South suffers the most, especially the low-lying island nations.
I’ve been fortunate to travel to several places in South America, listening closely to their leaders’ concerns. They deal with the complications of climate change created by the 20 wealthiest nations. Honduran President Xiomara Castro told me that saving her country’s rainforests will provide jobs at home — preventing mass migration — and soak up heat-trapping emissions. Meanwhile, the island of Dominica sits in the center of a hurricane zone, subjecting it to repeated body slams.
Panama’s Minister of Environment, Juan Carlos Navarro, explained his country is carbon-negative because its rainforests absorb more CO2 than its economy emits. Despite efforts to preserve its trees, it has suffered from the effects of climate change. In 2023, the country experienced a drought that decreased the water levels of the Panama Canal, resulting in a $1 billion revenue loss.
At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the wealthier countries agreed to give the developing countries $300 billion by 2035 to help them save their rainforests, grow their renewable energy base, and protect their infrastructure. The Global South asked for $1 trillion. It is unlikely they will realize the $300 billion.
TOPSHOT – Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) jumps on stage as he joins former US President and Republican … [+] presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally at site of his first assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5, 2024. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Number 2: Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States again. My column’s readers will wonder how this will affect environmental progress and corporate commitment to climate change. The reality is sustainable energy is now a staple of the American economy. The push for progress transcends any single administration in Washington.
Trump has already nominated Chris Wright to head the U.S. Department of Energy. Wright is the chief executive of Liberty Energy, which has pioneered shale gas fracking. However, he would be a regulator, which requires balancing several interests—including green energy and climate-related issues.
Regardless, American corporations are on board with efforts to reduce climate change. According to the World Wildlife Fund, 60% of Fortune 500 companies have set climate targets, including increasing their use of renewable energy. Exxon Mobil’s CEO Darren Woods cautioned the president-elect against withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and scrapping current regulations to curb methane emissions from oil and gas operations.
I’m finding that companies want to serve not just their shareholders but also their communities—if their investments in green technologies have a reasonable payback. It’s about building a brand that everyone can trust. Hitachi Energy, Schneider Electric, and PG&E Corp. are walking the walk.
Number 1: I’ve had the honor of spending time in Russia and Ukraine—rich with good people and complicated histories. Ukraine is fighting for its life. Russia has targeted its energy infrastructure, knocking its power so that the people there live in darkness and without heat in the winter part of the time.
Ukraine is now responding in kind, sending drones to disable Russian power plants and oil refineries. It’s the cost of freedom. Russia may have destroyed Ukraine’s major cities and occupied the eastern section of the country, but it has reversed all the progress it made after the Berlin Wall’s fall. Western nations boycott its oil and gas while much of Russia’s revenues go to fighting the Ukrainian war.
“Putin threatens Ukraine with ‘massively greater destruction’ after drones hit one of the Russia’s eastern regions,” President Zelensky’s former press aide Julia Mendel wrote. “The target? Kazan Powder Plant, a key hub for Russia’s war machine, producing explosives and fuel for missiles like Kalibr and Iskander. Putin conveniently ignores nearly 3 years of Russia’s missile and drone attacks that have devastated Ukrainian cities. Ukraine faces daily assaults, yet Putin warns of regret—while his own war of aggression wreaks havoc.”
Still, if Ukraine falls, the Baltic States of Lithuania, Estonia, and Estonia may as well, not to mention Poland and Moldova—and the Cold War begins anew.